US expected to supply 75 percent of oil production growth by 2025

Fuel Fix:

The world will increasingly depend on U.S. shale production to supply the crude oil needed to meet modest global demand growth, the International Energy Agency said in a new report.

The World Energy Outlook report focuses on the shift from oil to electricity to power the global economy. As a result, crude’s market share will continue to shrink, but the United States will be leaned on to supply more than half of global oil and gas production growth at least through 2025.

As much as 75 percent of global oil production growth could come from the U.S. in the years ahead, meaning increasing volumes of crude would be exported around the world from port hubs in the Houston and Corpus Christi areas

“The shale revolution continues to shake up oil and gas supply, enabling the United States to pull away from the rest of the field as the world’s largest oil and gas producer,” the report said.

Driven by West Texas’ booming Permian Basin, the United States has emerged this year as the world’s top oil producer — the nation already churned out the most natural gas. U.S. oil production, which reach an estimated 11.6 million barrels of crude a day as of last week, accounts for more than 10 percent of the world’s supplies and that should jump to nearly 20 percent by 2025, the IEA said.

But over-reliance on American oil could trigger a supply crunch in the years ahead, which would lead to higher oil and fuel prices, the IEA warned. Oil production in shale formations declines at faster rate than in convention wells, but energy companies are not investing in developing enough other oil and gas fields.

“Our projections already incorporate a doubling in U.S. tight oil from today to 2025, but it would need to more than triple in order to offset a continued absence of new conventional projects,” the report added.
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I suspect we will see fracking used to revitalize some "played out" conventional fields adding further growth to the US capacity.   There has been some movement in that direction in the Austin Chalk plays in southeast Texas.  US producers continue to find ways to be more efficient in the fracking wells.  The infrastructure to get the oil from the shale wells to the market should start coming online in 2019.

The Trump administration has really supported this growth and overcome the recession in the energy field caused by the Obama administration opposition to fossil fuels and its push for less efficient alternative energy.  With the Democrats returning to power in the House of Representatives, they could try to stymie this growth and again push for less efficient and less dependable alternative energy.