CIA 'conclusion' in Khashoggi killing based on intercepted call and circumstantial evidence

Washington Post:
CIA concludes Saudi crown prince ordered Jamal Khashoggi’s assassination
The agency’s assessment — the most definitive to date linking Mohammed bin Salman to the journalist’s death — is based on information that includes a phone call between Khashoggi and the prince’s brother, according to people familiar with the matter.
The CIA has no direct evidence that the Prince ordered the assassination.  Its evidence is that the prince's brother who works at the Saudi embassy talked to Khashoggi and told him it would be safe to get his paperwork for his marriage at the embassy in Turkey.   It turns out it was not safe to go to the Saudi facility in Turkey.  If the Crown Prince told his brother to give that message to Khashoggi it only proves that he knew he would be there.  It is not evidence that he ordered the murder, but it is evidence that he probably others in Saudi Arabia were aware of Khashoggi's movements.

The CIA operates on conjecture more than the rules of evidence.  That is why it gets some things wrong on occasion.

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