Post Kavanaugh polling shows a boost for GOP Senate candidates

Power Line:
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Tom Bevan is the co-founder of RealClearPolitics. Via Twitter, Tom alerts us to the most recent poll of the race. This one shows that Rep. McSally has jumped out to a small lead. Tom wonders wonders what might have happened recently to account for this. I should like to think it is the dawning realization that McSally is an outstanding candidate while Sinema is a shifty left-wing flake, but Tom has other thoughts.


Tom Bevan
✔@TomBevanRCP

Kavanaugh effect? New Arizona Senate poll has McSally ahead of Sinema by 6. https://www.abc15.com/news/state/poll-martha-mcsally-gaining-in-senate-race-against-kyrsten-sinema …

Poll: Martha McSally gaining in Senate race against Kyrsten Sinema

A new poll of Arizona's contested Senate race shows frontrunner Republican Martha McSally increasing her lead over Democrat Kyrsten Sinema.
abc15.com

Actually, the poll shows McSally now ahead 47-41.  Sinema had been in the lead at 48.  The GOP incumbent, Heller in Nevada is now leading by 2 points in a tight race, that the Democrats had seen as a pickup opportunity.

Hawley continues to have a narrow lead over McCaskill in Missouri.  In North Dakota, the Democrat incumbent is trailing by around 12 points to Cramer.  And, in Tennessee Blackburn has actually expanded her lead since Taylor Swift endorsed her opponent.
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But did her endorsement work? Doesn’t look like it since The New York Times Upshot site has Blackburn up on former Democrat Governor Phil Bredesen by 18 points! The poll has Blackburn at 57% and Bredesen at 39%. Only 4% of the respondents remain undecided.
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Whether this is all attrited to blowback from Kavanaugh or just pollsters no longer trying to spin for Democrats is not clear.  They do have a tendency to get more realistic closer to elections when they know the votes will finally be counted.

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