Jobs report good news for everyone but Democrats

The May jobs report is great news for everyone — except Democrats running for office

  • Friday's monthly employment report was great news for anyone looking for a job in America – unless you happen to be a Democrat running for Congress.
  • That's because voters who are employed are historically more likely to favor incumbents than those who are out of work.
  • With the jobless rate now down to 3.8 percent, Democrats in 435 House districts and 35 Senate races face a major challenge as they try to unseat Republican majorities in both chambers.

But with the U.S. economy now approaching its 10th year of recovery, the overall unemployment rate has fallen to levels rarely seen in the historical data. Last month, the official "headline" jobless rate fell to the lowest level since the end of the '90s Internet boom, which lasted a decade. The last time it was lower was in December 1969, at the tail end of a nearly nine-year boom that ended in 1970.

And the jobless rate may go lower still.

"The labor market is tightening rapidly and declines in the unemployment rate are likely to continue, but at a slower pace," Ben Herzon," an analyst IHS Markit, wrote in a research note.

That would make it harder for Democrats to argue that voters need a change in Washington, at least in terms of the most critical pocketbook issue.

Most troubling for Democrats is that the biggest job gainers have been groups that have historically suffered from stubbornly high levels of unemployment, including younger workers, black workers and so-called marginally attached workers, whose employment is tracked by the BLS with the so-called U-6 rate. That measure includes part-time workers who want a full-time job and people who want to work but have given up looking and aren't in the official count of the labor force.
The numbers will be especially bad for Democrats because it goes against their arguments against the Trump economic policies which they predicted would lead to disaster and ruin.  I  am sure they will come up with some other argument but it is likely to be as bogus as the earlier ones.  They are scrambling to maintain their relevance.


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