Former Air Force Col. Martha McSally favored in Arizona Senate race

US News:
A Republican Senate primary in Arizona featuring three major contenders is shaping up to be the preeminent test of Trumpism in the 2018 midterm election cycle.

This week's entries of former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio and Rep. Martha McSally into the race to replace retiring GOP Sen. Jeff Flake has scrambled the prospects of Kelli Ward, the former state senator and physician who already has been running for 15 months.

Ward, who'd been leading in polling in a matchup against Flake, suddenly finds herself squeezed between Arpaio – an immigration hard-liner with a devoted national following and a relationship with President Donald Trump – and McSally, the retired Air Force colonel and Harvard-educated choice of mainstream and elite Republicans.

Ward's pathway to victory was predicated on her ability to consolidate conservatives. Having to now compete for those voters with Arpaio, it's McSally who looks to benefit from the breach on the right. An OH Predictive Insights poll conducted this week of 504 registered voters found McSally with 31 percent support to Arpaio's 29 percent. Ward, despite having the longest tenure in the race, was in third with 25 percent. A November poll by the same firm pegged Ward at 42 percent support to McSally's 34 percent in a two-person contest.

"Sheriff Joe's entrance into the race probably assures Martha McSally the nomination," says Bruce Ash, a Republican National Committeeman from Arizona. "It probably splits the vote on Kelli Ward. The primary is probably a little more certain for Martha with Sheriff Joe's entry."
...
Sheriff Joe is 85 years old.  If I were that old I would feel happier in Arizona than Washington, DC.  Actually, I feel that way about Texas vs. DC even though I am younger than Arpaio.   Between Ward and McSally, Ward is probably the more conservative but not by that much.  McSally votes with Trump over 96 percent of the time.  She is strong on defense and had a distinguished record as an Air Force A-10 pilot with combat experience in the war against radical Islamists.   I think either of them would be an upgrade from Flake.

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