Obama's bad Iran deal was built on a weak foundation of sand

James Robbins:

President Trump’s decision not to certify that Iran is complying with the terms of the 2015 nuclear deal simply acknowledges reality. And if this causes the agreement to collapse, it will be a testament to the political weakness of its principal author.

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal was erected on a foundation of sand. Former president Barack Obama had a weak hand with Congress and could not muster the domestic political capital to conclude a durable formal treaty with Iran. So, he cut corners. His team cobbled together an arcane system whereby the White House must issue Iran sanctions waivers every 120 days for U.S. to live up to its end of the bargain. The president has an additional requirement under the 2015 Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act, to certify every 90 days that Iran is in compliance with the agreement. Obama had objected to this measure but signed it into law rather than face a certain bipartisan veto override.

Presumably if Trump wanted to bring the suspended sanctions back into force he could simply refuse to sign a waiver when that issue arises again in early 2018. Iran would view this, correctly, as the United States breaking the deal. However, by not certifying that Iran is in compliance, the Trump administration is suggesting that it is Iran that has abrogated the agreement, or at least cannot demonstrate that it is complying with it.

The international community is in the dark. The JCPOA has insufficient verificationprotocols, a shortcoming which was noted before the deal was signed. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) now admits that it cannot ensure that Tehran is not engaged in "activities which could contribute to the development of a nuclear explosive device." It is barred from inspecting Iran’s military sites, where presumably this type of activity would be taking place, and Russia is resisting broadening the agency’s inspection authority. So, it would be reckless for the White House to routinely certify Iran’s compliance every four months when there is really no way to know for certain.

This is a prudent decision. Failing to certify Iran’s compliance with the agreement does not abrogate the JCPOA, nor does it automatically engage the “snapback” sanctions mechanisms that are part of the agreement itself. But it does give Congress the opportunity to initiate legislation that would reimpose sanctions on an expedited schedule, if it so chooses. And it may motivate Iran to give greater access to international inspectors before Congress takes action, or before the next deadline for Trump to issue sanctions waivers — or not.
...

There is more.

I have still not anything in the current deal that speaks to the possibility of Iran buying a nuclear weapon from North Korea.  With Obama shipping pallets of cash to Iran, the US has provided them with the resources for such a transaction and the North Koreans are desperate for money to sustain their own nuclear activity.

Trump also referred to Iran's missile program as not being in the spirit of the deal.  In fact, if they were complying with the deal they would have no need for those missiles which they are allegedly colluding with North Korea to design and build.

Other reports indicate that Trump has designated the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization.  There is little doubt that they are.  While Iran disputes the rationale for the designation, at the same time it is threatening terrorist attacks against US forces in the Middle East.  In fact, a recent attack in Iraq used one of their characteristic explosive devices.

BTW, John McCain supports Trump's action against Iran and says the Iranian regime has been getting away with murder and has the blood of Americans on its hands.