The Trump losing streak
Though he is still the delegate leader and likely to dominate his home state primary of New York next week, it’s clear the momentum has turned against Donald Trump in the race for the Republican presidential nomination.What seems clear is that Trump must not think he can win by being more Presidential. Whining is just not a winning formula. It is what losers do.
Not only will Ted Cruz have won five victories in a row following Wyoming’s convention this weekend, but he will have captured that many delegate majorities in a row, too. Since Marco Rubio left the race, Cruz has doubled Trump’s delegate wins by a count of 129-66. Trump’s ceiling has remained stagnant since the field started winnowing as well. Additionally, since Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucuses, Trump’s national polling average has only increased by five points despite the field narrowing to two (and John Kasich’s Bonfire of the Vanities act).
While the candidacy he initially built is too strong to instantly implode like those previous “flavors of the month,” it’s clear that Trump will struggle to grow his support from here. Whatever he has now, he likely has. That means he likely won’t be acquiring the 1,237 delegates it takes to win the nomination outright prior to the convention. And given how the delegate process is going, it appears that if Trump doesn’t have the delegate majority heading into Cleveland he’s likely to be annihilated by Cruz once he gets there.
All of this explains why Electionbettingodds.com, a website started by John Stossel of Fox News to aggregate prediction markets betting on the election, now has Trump below 50% to win the GOP nomination for the first time. He was at 66% just about a month ago.