Trump does not look inevitable after last week
For those of you who enjoyed your weekend away from politics, Saturday became Super Cruzday. Ted Cruz beat Donald Trump in delegates, winning two of four states up for grabs. In a third state, Louisiana, Cruz tied Trump in delegates despite Trump’s overall win. On Sunday, in Puerto Rico, Rubio crushed Trump.Rubio would fit the attack dog role of some VP candidates of the past. The longer he stays in the less strength he would bring to a ticket. But the more important news of the weekend is that Trump if losing steam. He seriously underperformed his poll numbers he is so proud of.
In fact, what we are seeing is a massive shift in the underlying polling data away from Trump. For example, in some areas where Trump won early voting, the day of voting numbers show him losing two to one and in some cases three to one. The longer this goes on, the more the GOP rallies against Trump.
The only thing that helps Trump is Rubio staying in. Even the Rubio people are conceding that he has no path forward outside of a brokered convention. Rubio is running low on funds, is second in polling in Florida, and has no path forward except to take it at the convention. But if Rubio gets out and allies with Cruz as his running mate now, they can win Florida and the nomination in a fair fight without the need for a brokered convention.
Cruz is willing to take that deal. Rubio needs to. Cruz is going to work hard to make sure Rubio cannot win Florida is only to finally stop this and get it to a two man race. If Rubio loses Florida, not only will he have forced a brokered convention, but he will ruin his future political prospects too.