Cruz has realistic shot at winning California
...This would be a huge block of voters for Cruz and I think Wolf's analysis is compelling. It would also give California a chance to be relevant in a GOP primary which should lead to a larger than usual turnout.
In any event, here comes a poll of California voters – the first one in a long time – that shows two things. First, that Trump would get dominated in a general election matchup there, and second, that if the GOP field has come down to Trump v. Cruz by the time California votes, Trump would be in trouble.
The top line result of the poll is this: Trump 24%, Cruz 20%, Rubio 18%, Kasich 15%. If you imagine a race in which Kasich and Rubio are gone, all Cruz would have to do would be to pull in Rubio/Kasich voters at a 60/40% split and he would beat Trump. Does anyone not think that Cruz would get 60% of the Rubio/Kasich voters that have held out against supporting Trump this long? I don’t.