Tipp poll shows race tightening

Tipp Online:
President Obama's lead over Governor Romney shrinks from 7 points in August to 2 points in September, according to the latest Investor's Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor/TIPP Poll.  Romney gains support from men, southern, rural, and Hispanic voters this month.

Q:  If the 2012 election for United States President were held today and the following were candidates for whom would you vote?
46% Democrat Barack Obama
44% Republican Mitt Romney
8% Not sure
2%   Refused
This has been the most accurate poll in the last two elections.  I think it is still over sampling Democrats, but it is a poll that makes more sense than most of the post convention polls.  The party ID showed 36 percent Democrat, 31 percent Republican and 30 percent Independents.  The poll shows both candidates getting 41 percent of the independent vote.  Most other polls have shown independents breaking toward Romney by 10 to 15 percent.

The Washington Post/ABC poll of likely lovers puts the race at 49 Obama, 48 Romney with is about as close as you can get to a dead heat.  This poll used a D +10 skew to get Obama in the lead.  That is wildly out of phase with reality and even greater than Obama got in 2008 which was clearly a Democrat year.  In 2010 the parties were tied, and recent polling shows Republicans have an advantage in party identification.


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