The Obama 'comeback'

Changing of the Guard, Inaugration Day, Washin...Image by Beverly & Pack via Flickr
Alex Spillius:

Just months after condemning Mr Obama as a certain one-term flop in the image of Jimmy Carter, senior Republicans now acknowledge that sitting presidents have historically started US presidential campaigns with a major advantage. A series of polls have recently shown the president leading all his potential opponents by a margin of five percentage points or more.

"I consider him a favourite, albeit a slight favourite," said Karl Rove, a former adviser to George W Bush, the previous president. "Republicans underestimate President Obama at their own peril."

Mr Obama's opponents have been taken aback by his readiness to move to the centre, agreeing to extend tax cuts passed by Mr Bush and making concessions on his treasured health care legislation.

I don't think there has been much of a comeback. Obama has still been a very poor President. His irresponsible spending and his health care monstrosity are still issues that will cause him trouble in a well run campaign. He showed in the 2010 race he does not have good answers for the criticism.

It is way to early to count out the GOP field. I think there are several potential candidates who can run a credible race. The issues are still there that generated the shellacking. People will remember his opposition to spending cuts more than they will remember his short term concession on taxes, and the tax issue will be back on the table in 2012 when Obama will be running to raise them again.
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