Obama goes wimpy on Iran

Amir Tehiri:

By month's end, America and its European allies are expected to develop a joint response to Iran's latest "cheat-and-retreat" maneuvers on its disputed nuclear program.

Interviews in recent days in several European capitals have disclosed deep divisions between the two sides of the Atlantic on the Iran issue.

Yes, European-American bickering over Iran goes back 30 years. But this time it's Europe that's pressing for "resolute action" -- while America, abandoning its traditionally tougher stance, is advising a conciliatory approach.

"With the advent of the Obama administration, we are witnessing a reversal of roles," says a senior Austrian diplomat dealing with Iran. "Europe is now conscious that Iran cannot be allowed to do as it pleases. In contrast, the US insists on new avenues [for negotiations]."

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The European view is that talks are at a dead end and that a UN resolution imposing new sanctions on Iran is the only credible option.

"Any show of weakness would be seen by Tehran as a signal that the international community has accepted its nuclear ambitions," says a senior British diplomat. "If allowed to stick, that perception could give the signal for a nuclear arms race in the region."

While the Europeans cite Iranian "provocations" as the reason for toughening their stance, they also think that the Khomeinist regime, deeply split and still facing mass unrest, may be in terminal trouble.

"No one can ignore the unrest," says a French diplomat dealing with Iran. "We can no longer take [the regime's] stability for granted."

The fact that Iran is facing a major economic crisis may be another factor. European diplomats claim that Iran is running out of cash to finance current contracts.

Falling demand for oil, along with reduced prices, are affecting its public finances. And the economic meltdown of Dubai, the biggest magnet for private Iranian foreign investments, has shaken Iran's private sector.

Doubts about Iran's economic prospects have made most EU members to put stricter rules on guarantees for exports to Iran. Two of the three staunchly pro-Iran EU members, Spain and Greece, are going through economic crises and no longer can subsidize trade with Iran. The third, Austria (where mullahs have invested much of their money), has also withdrawn guarantees and indirect subsidies that have helped its companies secure a major share of the Iranian market.

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There is more.

The administration needs to seize this opportunity to deal with Iran in an effective matter. It also needs to get on the side of the Iranian people and quit giving respect to this odious regime.