The enemy has a say in when the war is over

Richard Halloran:

Somewhere in the mountain fastness of Afghanistan or in the remote wilds of northwestern Pakistan, leaders of the Taliban insurgents and al Qaida terrorists have been poring over President Obama's speech on the Afghan war and the statements of his advisers this week to determine their own strategy for the next 18 months.

It's a good bet they will decide to fade into the hills or to disappear into the 40,000 villages spread across a land larger than Texas. There they will heal their wounds, retrain guerrillas, and wait until the Yankees begin to go home as President Obama has promised.

For that is what the president has decreed despite the hedging language in his speech and subsequent statements from advisers about depending on conditions in Afghanistan. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates was explicit in testimony before a Congressional committee, asserting that in July 2011 there would begin "a gradual - but inexorable - process" of withdrawing American troops.

The July 2011 date is roughly halfway between today and the elections of November 2012 when the voters and taxpayers, already weary of the Iraq and Afghan wars, will surely be demanding that the troops be withdrawn-and will vote for whoever agrees. That will set the deadline in political concrete.

The strategy outlined by the president at the US Military Academy at West Point had many audiences-the American public, Democrats to the left and Republicans to the right of the president, military men and women who must fight the war, the rulers and peoples of Afghanistan and Pakistan, allies in NATO and elsewhere.

Everyone, however, seems to have ignored the Taliban insurgents and al Qaida terrorists who have a say in how the conflict in Afghanistan plays out. Neither President Obama nor Gates nor the others in the national security team appear to have taken them into account.

Only an unidentified "senior administration official" briefing the press addressed this issue-and he brushed it aside. "If the Taliban think they can wait us out," he said, "I think that they're misjudging the President's approach." He concluded: "It may be misinterpreted, but the Taliban will do that at its own risk."

...

Exactly what is the risk to the Taliban of laying low for a few months? There is a marginal risk that the Afghan army might get its act together and be able to protect the people better, but based on the history of the last few years that is not a likely event. Another risk is that with better intelligence the US might find their lairs and destroy them. That of course would depend on where they were laying low.

With the Democrats in power, the Taliban would have a good bet that time is own their side. But is the focus is on getting the troops out before 2012 and Afghanistan falls apart, the Democrats will be in trouble and they cannot successfully blame their trouble on President Bush.