Air Force plans an all UAV future

Danger Room:

It was without much fanfare that the Air Force published its new Unmanned Aircraft System Flight Plan on Wednesday. But the low-key launch of the study, which aims to sketch out drone development through the year 2047, belies the radical future the air service envisions. In an acronym-dense 82 pages, the Air Force explains how ever-larger and more sophisticated flying robots could eventually replace every type of manned aircraft in its inventory — everything from speedy, air-to-air fighters to lumbering bombers and tankers.

Emphasis on “might” and “could.” While revealing how robots can equal the capabilities of traditional planes, the Air Force is careful to emphasize that an all-bot air fleet is not inevitable. Rather, drones will represent “alternatives” to manned planes, in pretty much every mission category.

Some of the missions tapped for possible, future drones are currently considered sacrosanct for human pilots. Namely: dogfighting and nuclear bombing. Drones “are unlikely to replace the manned aircraft for air combat missions in the policy-relevant future,” Manjeet Singh Pardesi wrote in Air & Space Power Journal, just four years ago. Dogfighting was considered too fluid, too fast, for a drone’s narrow “situational awareness.” As for nuclear bombing: “Many aviators, in particular, believe that a ‘man in the loop’ should remain an integral part of the nuclear mission because of the psychological perception that there is a higher degree of accountability and moral certainty with a manned bomber,” Adam Lowther explained in Armed Forces Journal, in June.

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When was the last time you heard about an aerial dog fight? The technology has changed to the point where if one were to take place it is likely it would occur without visual contact. The planes defenses would pick up the approaching aircraft miles before it not near the plane and missiles would be released to destroy the approaching craft. Most recent wars have seen the US achieve air superiority after the first days leaving the planes virtually unchallenged thereafter. While it is conceivable we might face an enemy who could survive those initial attacks the number who might is pretty small.

I think UAVs will be a dominate future of air power in the coming years. There is still much innovation to be done.