Al Qaeda dispersing from Pakistan?

NY Times:

American officials say they are seeing the first evidence that dozens of fighters with Al Qaeda, and a small handful of the terrorist group’s leaders, are moving to Somalia and Yemen from their principal haven in Pakistan’s tribal areas. In communications that are being watched carefully at the Pentagon, White House and Central Intelligence Agency, the terror groups in all three locations are now communicating more frequently, and apparently trying to coordinate their actions, the officials said.

Some aides to President Obama attribute the moves to pressure from intensified drone attacks against Qaeda operatives in Pakistan, after years of unsuccessful American efforts to dislodge the terror group from their haven there.

But there are other possible explanations. Chief among them is the growth of the jihadist campaigns in both Somalia and Yemen, which may now have some of the same appeal for militants that Iraq did after the American military invasion there in 2003. Somalia is now a failed state that bears some resemblance to Afghanistan before the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, while Yemen’s weak government is ineffectually attempting to combat the militants, American officials say.

The shift of fighters is still small, perhaps a few dozen, and there is no evidence that the top leaders — Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahri — are considering a move from their refuge in the Pakistani tribal areas, according to more than half a dozen senior administration, military and counterterrorism officials interviewed in recent days. Most officials would not comment on the record about the details of what they are seeing, because of the sensitivity of the intelligence information they are gathering.

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The dispersal makes sense in light of the concentration of forces that are focusing on Afghanistan and Pakistan sanctuaries at this time. One of al Qaeda's strategies has been to make dispersed attacks to put more pressure on their enemies' force levels. If they can cause trouble in Yemen and Somalia that might distract US forces from concentrating attacks in Afghanistan and Pakistan they are achieving their objectives. Somalia remains a basket case of a country and Yemen is a country with a leadership that is indifferent to their presence most of the time. I see it as an effort to try to take pressure off their forces in Pakistan and Afghanistan.