This week's silver lining

Bill Kristol:

To both departing Justice David Souter and party-switching Senator Arlen Specter, one is tempted to say: Don't let the door hit you on the way out.

Souter may have been the worst Supreme Court justice ever appointed by a Republican president. Ike regretted, as well he should have, putting Earl Warren and William Brennan on the high bench. But both were impressive individuals, if not constitutionally sound jurists. Souter has been unimpressively unsound.

As for Specter, his departure perfectly became him: It was entirely opportunistic, driven by his conviction that he'd lose the Republican primary, and that if he did, he couldn't do what Joe Lieberman did and run and win as an independent. The Democrats are welcome to him.

Having said all that, one has to acknowledge that the Souter and Specter developments are short-term victories for the left: Sixty votes in the Senate (assuming Al Franken is seated from Minnesota) will make liberal legislation harder to block or modify, and a younger (and probably cleverer) replacement for Souter isn't good for the cause of a constitutionalist Supreme Court.

On the other hand, if the fundamental Republican task is to pick up seats in 2010 and replace Obama in 2012--as it must be, for the sake of the country--and if the fundamental conservative task is to present alternatives to Obama's governance, then this week's news is not all bad.

With 60 Democrats in the Senate, it's Obama's Congress now. Republican obstructionism goes away as an issue and as a political talking point. Obama and the Democrats will be unambiguously in charge. Within a year, it will be Obama's and the Democrats' bailouts, Obama's and the Democrats' deficits, Obama's and the Democrats' tax hikes, and Obama's and the Democrats' domestic overreach.

Whomever Obama nominates to replace Souter (Second Circuit judge Sonia Sotomayor is the betting favorite) will almost certainly be confirmed. Many conservatives will want Republicans to stand on principle and to make the constitutionalist case against Obama's judicial-activist nominee. They'll be disappointed by most GOP senators, who'll decide to defer to the president/keep their powder dry/not alienate Hispanics, and will vote to confirm. So it could be a demoralizing few months for conservatives, as the Roberts and Alito confirmations were for the left.

On the other hand, the ascension of Sotomayor (or whomever), and the prospect of more Obama picks joining the Supreme Court and filling the lower courts over the next three years, will focus conservatives and Republicans on a range of constitutional and legal issues where they should have the political advantage. The conservative critique of ACLU-like court decisions and left-wing Justice Department briefs and actions, in areas ranging from national security to social issues, will remind lots of Americans about aspects of modern liberalism they, quite correctly, dislike....

...

I guess that is the bright side. I do think that the Democrats have lost their excuse for failure, but they will probably still attempt to blame Republicans for every thing that goes wrong as they did this week on Mexico's swine flu problems. It is really absurd to suggest that a vote against a portion of a bloated "stimulus" bill is the reason that we have a problem with swine flu. It is another example of the evils liberals attempt to project on their political opponents. Then there is all those liberal writers who seem really perturbed that conservatives and Republicans are still opposing liberalism.