Pakistan army continues aggressive assualt on Taliban

NY Times:

The Pakistani Army pressed a surprisingly vigorous offensive on Friday against the Taliban militants who had taken control of a broad swath of territory northwest of the capital, sending tens of thousands of Pakistanis fleeing the fighting.

The exodus — by truck, car, foot and horse cart — reached close to 200,000 people, forcing relief workers to erect new rows of tents in camps along the clotted road running south from Swat Valley, the scene of the heaviest fighting. More trouble loomed: Relief officials said as many as 300,000 people were moving or preparing to flee.

The humanitarian crisis unfolded as the Pakistani Army moved ahead with what it described as an all-out attack on the Taliban militants in Swat, the epicenter of a power struggle over months between government forces and the militants. Army officers said they were confronting a force of about 4,000 militants, who took advantage of a peace agreement in February to seize control of much of the district and its government buildings.

There have been a number of indications over the past week that the Pakistani Army has finally decided to confront the militants forcefully, though previous hopes, dating back five years, have always been dashed. The uncertainties included whether the army, even if it wanted to, was competent enough to deliver a death-blow to the militants or whether defeating them would come at such a high cost to civilians that it would further erode public support.

Pakistanis in the area said the Taliban had so far held onto every neighborhood they had seized in the previous days and months. Eyewitnesses said Friday that the insurgents remained in control of Mingora, the district capital, and many parts of the districts of Buner and Lower Dir.

At the military’s headquarters in Rawalpindi, Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas made few claims of territorial progress. He said that helicopters strafed militants in Swat over the last 24 hours, and that 140 militants and 7 Pakistani soldiers had been killed.

“They are on the run and trying to block the exodus of innocent civilians by preventing their departure through coercion,” General Abbas said.

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The exodus — by truck, car, foot and horse cart — reached close to 200,000 people, forcing relief workers to erect new rows of tents in camps along the clotted road running south from Swat Valley, the scene of the heaviest fighting. More trouble loomed: Relief officials said as many as 300,000 people were moving or preparing to flee.

The humanitarian crisis unfolded as the Pakistani Army moved ahead with what it described as an all-out attack on the Taliban militants in Swat, the epicenter of a power struggle over months between government forces and the militants. Army officers said they were confronting a force of about 4,000 militants, who took advantage of a peace agreement in February to seize control of much of the district and its government buildings.

There have been a number of indications over the past week that the Pakistani Army has finally decided to confront the militants forcefully, though previous hopes, dating back five years, have always been dashed. The uncertainties included whether the army, even if it wanted to, was competent enough to deliver a death-blow to the militants or whether defeating them would come at such a high cost to civilians that it would further erode public support.

Pakistanis in the area said the Taliban had so far held onto every neighborhood they had seized in the previous days and months. Eyewitnesses said Friday that the insurgents remained in control of Mingora, the district capital, and many parts of the districts of Buner and Lower Dir.

At the military’s headquarters in Rawalpindi, Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas made few claims of territorial progress. He said that helicopters strafed militants in Swat over the last 24 hours, and that 140 militants and 7 Pakistani soldiers had been killed.

“They are on the run and trying to block the exodus of innocent civilians by preventing their departure through coercion,” General Abbas said.

Militant resistance in neighboring Buner, just 60 miles from Islamabad, has decreased considerably, General Abbas said. He said the military had lifted a curfew in Buner to allow civilians to escape toward Mardan and other areas.

There was no way to verify Gen. Abbas’s account; reporters and most outsiders have been blocked from the areas. The Pakistani government and the military, which has largely stood by as the Taliban insurgency has surged forward in recent months, have been under intense American pressure to take action against the militants.

A government official reached at his home in Mingora said many militants had been killed this week when Pakistani helicopter gunships attacked an emerald mine that sits on the approach to Mingora. Still, the government’s position was unchanged, the official said; it was clinging to only a small corner of Mingora. The mayor’s office and police headquarters were still in Taliban hands.

The official said electricity and water in the district capital were both gone. “Thousands of people are leaving,” he said, speaking on the condition of anonymity, for fear that he would be killed.

A Pakistani who spoke to his family in Mingora on Friday said they had confirmed that the Taliban remained in control of the city. He said the roads into the capital had been booby-trapped with land mines, and that in some places, like Matta, a Taliban stronghold, militants were blocking civilians from leaving.

Another Pakistani in Swat, also speaking on the condition of anonymity, said Taliban fighters had begun to loot local banks, including three on Thursday.

Some civilians fleeing the area said the Pakistani Army had imposed a round-the-clock curfew across much of the embattled area, preventing thousands of people from leaving. Those people would flee at the first chance, the refugees said.

Pakistani soldiers gave out pamphlets accusing the Taliban of playing into the hands of so-called anti-Pakistan elements. “They are the same as Jewish forces who are against the existence and security of the country and wanted to create disturbance in the region,” read a leaflet, according to a report in Dawn, a prominent Pakistani newspaper.

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As a rule of thumb, the first side to call the other Jewish is probably losing. That seems to be a Muslim tradition for the last 60 years.

While the military is being aggressive and is using heavy weapons in major combat operations, that is not how they will be able to defeat the Taliban and less the latter's forces decide to stand and give battle. The Taliban has been known to be that foolish, but the wiser course is to retreat to fight another day.

Now that Pakistan is bringing in its heavy weapons and its air power, I think they can expect the Taliban to go with a victim offensive claiming heavy civilian casualties. That has been their MO in Afghanistan and Pakistan should expect the same. It has been their most effective weapon against US air power.

What the army needs to do is get control of the cities and get the people back in them. They must also stay around and protect them. That will be very frustrating for the Taliban and will also give the army the best chance to destroy the Taliban. The army will also get better intelligence if it protects the people.

BTW, Dexter Filkins wrote the story this post is based on. He is one of the best war correspondents working today.