Anxiety over Pakistan's nukes

CBS:

While calling the rising tide of Taliban violence in Pakistan cause for grave concern, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs played down the nightmare scenario of terrorists taking control of that country's nuclear weapons.

"I don't think that's going to happen," said Adm. Mike Mullen. "I don't see that in any way imminent whatsoever at this particular point in time."

But Adm. Mullen acknowledged there's a limit to what he knows since Pakistan guards its doomsday secrets as jealously as the U.S. guards its own, reports CBS News national security correspondent David Martin.

"Much of the complex is largely secret and kept so necessarily by the Pakistani government and so I'm not sure we know as much as we should," said CBS News consultant Juan Zarate.

Zarate worked with Pakistan on improving security at top secret plants during the Bush administration. He says the U.S. is not sure exactly how many weapons the Pakistanis have or where they all are.

"There are and have been Pakistani scientists or elements of the complex that have had sympathies and met with people who would be considered to be our enemies," Zarate said.

Shortly before 9/11 Osama bin Laden met directly with two Pakistani nuclear scientists. And former CIA officer Rolf Mowatt Larssen, who knows as much about Pakistan's nuclear complex as any American, says Taliban and al Qaeda sympathizers remain its Achilles heel.

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The BBC reports that National Security adviser James Jones is looking for a specific pledge from Pakistan on the weapons.

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In an interview with the BBC's North America editor, Justin Webb, Gen Jones said that "things are moving in a more positive direction" in Pakistan, but that more assurances were needed about the safety of the country's nuclear weapons.

"If Pakistan doesn't continue in the direction that it presently is and we're not successful there then, obviously, the nuclear question comes into view,"

"We have received many assurances from the military that this is something they have under control but this is very much an ongoing topic," he added.

"The world would like to know that on this question, that there's absolute security and transparency."

The safety of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal has become more of a concern to the US government since Taleban fighters began expanding their influence in northern Pakistan beyond the Swat valley, which they already largely control.

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It is, of course, in Pakistan's interest to maintain some ambiguity about the size of its nuclear arsenal and its location. I don't think transparency on that issue is on their agenda although they may be persuaded to at least share the info with the US. The problem with the Obama administration may be a lack of trust on whether they will keep the information secret.

It does appear that the anxiety in Washington has as much to do with the nukes as with the continued viability of the Pakistan government.