Objectives and means in war against al Qaeda

Ralph Peters:

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Osama may be found and killed tomorrow or on the day after the inauguration - or never. But if we do nail him, it won't be because of presidential posturing.

Bush has done all he could to finish off the al Qaeda leader (for Bush, it was personal; for Obama, it's just political). There's no new magic formula waiting to be applied: This effort is still about skill, persistence and luck.

Yes, luck matters in the Intelligence world. Sometimes you just have to wait for your opponent to make one small, fatal mistake, or for a disaffected walk-in, or for a chance sighting by a source you've spent years cultivating.

A fateful error amateurs make about intelligence is to assume that any problem can be solved if we hurl more resources at it. But top-of-the-game intelligence work is about quality, not quantity. It doesn't help to have a dozen seasonal-hire carpenters all whacking at the same nail - better to have one skilled carpenter on the job.

We'd all love to see Osama lying dead in the dust. But, please, Mr. President-elect: Don't make claims that, if unfulfilled, allow our enemies to declare victory.

That's doubly applicable as regards Obama's promise to "stamp out al Qaeda once and for all." He might as well claim he'll eliminate crime or drug abuse.

The Middle East is so utterly broken it's going to continue producing fanatics for decades. Our desired end state should recall our bygone campaigns against the Mafia: Reduce the power and reach of the enemy, pushing him to the margins where, instead of posing a strategic threat, he's just a nuisance.

That's the best that we can hope to achieve.

The same applies to the Taliban in Afghanistan.

Both the Taliban and al Qaeda have deep, if narrow, constituencies. This is a very long-term struggle, transcending any single administration. Winning doesn't mean achieving a terror-free world - an impossible goal - but minimizing, localizing and demythologizing the damage terrorists do.

It's our job to kill terrorists, but only the cultures from which they spring can kill the terror impulse.

This doesn't mean the struggle isn't worth it - it's essential. But we need to have realistic expectations as to what we can achieve in such a self-tormenting region as the greater Middle East.

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We have been able to substantially degrade the ability of al Qaeda to project force against us in the US. We have been able to do this by taking the war to the enemy in Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan. We were not able to do this under the Clinton administrations lawfare strategy which left us on the strategic defensive.

While Obama talks big about going after al Qaeda and bin Laden his return to the lawfare strategy as he has promised will only prolong the war and make us more vulnerable. His Gitmo policy will put more terrorist back into operation and some of them may wind up in the US. Did the 60 minutes guys did not ask questions about that aspect of his policy?