The Obama greenlight to oppression in Middle East

Jackson Diehl:

Some Europeans danced in the streets when Barack Obama won the U.S. presidential election. Kenya declared a national holiday. In Egypt the celebration was somewhat different: Government-controlled goons burned down the headquarters of the liberal democratic party that tried to embrace President Bush's "freedom agenda."

Ayman Nour, the popular young leader of that party, challenged Hosni Mubarak in Egypt's first contested presidential election in 2005. He did so in large part because of Bush, who called on Egypt to "show the way" in the democratization of the Middle East. Mubarak won the election handily, then used a handpicked judge to sentence Nour to prison on trumped-up charges. The would-be democratic reformer has been behind bars ever since. Mubarak has ignored the Bush administration's mostly sotto voce appeals on Nour's behalf, and the State Department long ago shelved the freedom agenda for Egypt.

With Bush now on his way out, Mubarak is losing his remaining inhibitions. Two days after Obama's election, Nour's wife, Gameela Ismail, and other party leaders held a meeting. A party faction sponsored by the regime marched on the building in which they had gathered and -- as photographs posted on the Internet clearly show -- used aerosol cans to set fire to it. Police, who stood by while the attack took place, later tried to blame Ismail and the other party leaders, who were nearly trapped by the blaze. Now these leaders may face criminal charges.

The episode is significant because it demonstrates a principal conclusion that Mubarak and other "pro-Western" autocrats seem to have drawn from Obama's election: that the threat of U.S. pressure for political liberalization has passed. Eighty-year-old Mubarak, who has not visited the United States since 2003 because of resentment toward Bush, is convinced that the next president won't pester him about human rights, reports the Egyptian press. After all, in his message to the world on election night, Obama said: "To those who seek peace and security, we support you." Peace and security, in exchange for autocracy, is the bargain Mubarak has always offered Washington.

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The question Obama will face is not whether elections will take place -- none of those scheduled could be canceled without violence. He will, instead, have to decide whether to insist that the votes be free and fair, and their results respected. In Egypt, that will bring him back to the case of Nour, who could be released from prison by July and who in a recent statement made clear that he intends to challenge the Mubaraks again. "I am now confident more than ever before about the fairness and legitimacy of this battle," Nour said. "The battle of the last presidential election . . . will not be the last round." The burning of his headquarters underlined the message for the next American president: This is a struggle in which he will be forced to take sides.

People in Muslim countries do not always choose wisely. Certainly the Palestinian election of Hamas was a terrible mistake, but the Palestinians in Gaza are learning the consequences of that mistake and hopefully they will choose more wisely next time. The key is to hold those elected accountable for results. Without the pressure from the Bush administration the voters might not be given the chance and the Democrats are just not that big on democracy outside the US.