How Axelrod sells bad leaders

Mathew Kaminski:

A couple Januaries ago, the first African-American governor of Massachusetts took the oath of office on the State House steps. "Change is not always comfortable or convenient or welcome," he declared. "But it is what we hoped for, what we have worked for, what you voted for, and what you shall have."

The swearing-in ended an improbable journey for Deval Patrick -- and started a painful lesson in political realities for a rookie executive.

His story provides a useful prism to view the current presidential race. The Patrick campaign is the model for Barack Obama's effort, down to the messages of "hope" and "change" and the unofficial Patrick slogan of "Yes, We Can!" The men are friends with similar backgrounds (raised by single mothers, educated at Harvard Law) and electoral appeal (unconventional, "historic" candidacies built around an inspiring personal story). More importantly perhaps, they share an image-maker and political guru in David Axelrod, the strategist who told the New York Times Magazine last year that Obama presidential campaign themes were field tested in Massachusetts.

As a path to power, the Axelrod method appears to be the best thing going today. Coming into the 2006 race, Mr. Patrick was a political novice with 1%-2% name recognition in a state that's 6% black. He faced off against a sitting state attorney general favored by the Democratic Party establishment. The former Clinton administration lawyer energized the grass-roots and youth vote with superior organization and stirring oratory. The candidate himself was the message; the campaign dwelled on his personal story, not the issues. As one Patrick advertisement trilled, "His life has been the triumph of hope, hard work and determination."

Doug Rubin, the governor's chief of staff today and then a Patrick campaign strategist, says Mr. Axelrod's AKP&D Message and Media political consulting firm -- which also brought into the Patrick team the current Obama campaign manager David Plouffe -- got the nod because "the governor wanted to make the case for himself . . . in a different from traditional campaign." Massachusetts never saw anything like it. Mr. Patrick upset the favorite in the Democratic primary and won the general election by 21 points.

But the Axelrod method has its drawbacks once the candidate takes office. Upon winning his party nomination, Mr. Patrick declared, "I come here to change politics as usual. What's missing from politics as usual is" -- guess what? -- "hope."

That crusading optimism, so critical to his election victory, fast bumped up against established Democratic interests such as the police unions and powerbrokers on Beacon Hill. They didn't know Mr. Patrick, didn't appreciate him jumping the queue to the governor's chair, didn't buy his reformist outsider message, and frankly liked things as they were. Great speeches or popular support were insufficient for Mr. Patrick to get his way.

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Gov. Patrick's bigger challenge was to turn an autobiographical, pseudo-postideological campaign into a mandate for governing. The transition proved hard and, today, remains incomplete. Having made himself the focus of the election, Mr. Patrick could not easily point to a particular policy agenda of his own. "He won a mandate for a governing style," says Byron Rushing, a House Democrat. "That presents a problem because everyone in their mind has an agenda to go with that style." Jay Kaufman, another representative, adds, "Each decision disappointed someone."

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Mr. Patrick's poll ratings sank fast, hitting a low with 41% approving of his job performance this April (56% disapproved). "The governor made everyone feel good, then they didn't feel good at all," says Khalil Byrd, his former deputy campaign manager.

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The governor's approval rating is nudging back up to 45% in an October SurveyUSA poll, still nearly 20 points off its inauguration-day high. Mr. Patrick doesn't yet face a serious challenger for a possible second term, which he claims to want. He figures in cabinet and Supreme Court speculation in a possible Obama administration. If his friend's experience in Boston is any guide, the "change" president could be in for a rough ride with the Democratic warhorses on Capitol Hill.

He sounds too much like Jimmy Carter who also came in as an outsider and alienated his own party and found himself pretty much alone. I am surprised more has not been written about Patrick's failure of leadership after riding in on the hope and change express. I expect a similar failure if Obama is elected. He knows nothing about leadership or even being an executive. His ideology is based on the failed policies of the past--socialism and weakness on foreign policy.