Democrats struggle for comeback in Texas

Houston Chronicle:

Texas Democrats contend the political climate is right for a stunning comeback from 2002 when they lost control of the House for the first time since Reconstruction.

Republicans, who captured a huge 88-62 advantage after that historic election, however, are refusing to concede any House contest — and even harbor hopes of padding their 78-71 advantage.

One Republican-leaning seat is open; Democrats need to gain five House seats to nudge Speaker Tom Craddick and his GOP allies out of power.

It seemed like a stretch just a few weeks ago to reach the magic number 76, a majority in the 150-member House, but the Texas GOP may not escape the souring national political mood.

And though Texas Republicans dispute any notion of losing their leverage, political experts agree the Republican brand name is in trouble.

"With all that happening, it's pretty inconceivable that Texas isn't going to participate at some level in a movement toward the Democratic Party," said Cal Jillson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University, who expects Texas Republicans to lose their House majority.

Prospects for Republicans might be even gloomier if Democrat Sen. Barack Obama poured some of his presidential campaign resources into Texas for TV spots and get-out-the vote efforts. But Texas is considered one of Republican Sen. John McCain's safe states — and presidential campaign attention is going elsewhere.

The Republicans' 19-11 advantage (with one vacancy) in the state Senate is not likely to change significantly, although Democrats believe they can pick off one or two GOP seats. That leaves most of the state's political drama focused on the House districts.

In the Houston area, Democrats are targeting the open seat held by retiring Rep. Robert Talton, a Republican, that covers Pasadena and southeast Harris County. Voters will choose between Democrat Joel Redmond and Republican Ken Legler.

Democrats also are targeting Republican incumbent John Davis and his southeast Harris County district. The district still favors Republicans, but Democrats are hopeful about their candidate, Sherrie Matula.

The second tier of targeted Democratic contests includes Kristi Thibaut challenging Republican incumbent Jim Murphy in western Harris County.

Republicans' best hope of defeating a Houston-area Democrat rests with Greg Meyers, who is challenging two-term incumbent Hubert Vo in southwest Harris County district.

Kelly Fero, a veteran Democratic strategist and campaign consultant, believes his party will get between five and 12 Texas House seats. Elections give voters a choice between the status quo and change, he said, "and this is as much of an election about changing the way things are as we have ever seen in our lifetime.

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Notice where the Democrats are concentrating their hopes--Texas legislative house seats. They are having to play small ball because they have no chance in any statewide races and as the article indicates they stand little chance in the larger senatorial districts.

The Democrats are probably getting money from the trial lawyers who have bitterly opposed the reforms of the legal and judicial systems that have made Texas so attractive to business and doctors. However, much of their efforts have been in local judicial races.

I just do not see any momentum toward Democrats especially locally. In Washington County the only signs you see for a Democrat are for a District Attorney, who is from a prominent family and she is opposed by a Republican who is winning the yard sign vote.