Russian aggression in Georgia threatens space program

Sunday Telegraph:

The US space agency Nasa is due to mothball the Shuttle programme in 2010 but the replacement spacecraft is not due to be ready until 2015, leaving a five year gap where the US is dependent on the Russians for a ride to the international space station.

Space campaigners in the US are now concerned that the Russians will pull the plug on the arrangement as the Kremlin flexes its diplomatic muscles, turning the future of space exploration into a diplomatic bargaining chip.

Vincent Sabathier, director of Human Space Exploration Initiative at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank, wrote last week: "If recent Russian actions are any indicator, a technical excuse to completely block US access to the International Space Station for geopolitical reasons would fit nicely into the Kremlin toolkit."

The deal could also fall victim to stubborn congressmen, who do not want to pay the Russians for the right to hitch a lift because they disapprove of Russian foreign policy.

Congress has to approve any payments to Russia because under American law public funds cannot be sent to a country like Russia that has aided weapons proliferation to state sponsors of terrorism like Iran.

Buzz Aldrin, the second man on the Moon and now a campaigner for further space exploration, voiced the fears of many when he told The Sunday Telegraph: "The US government cannot pay Russia for services to the space station unless the President can certify that Russia is no longer supporting Iran and these other countries.

"Well, we know that he can't do that. The only way around that is to have a waiver. That waiver that has been in effect expires in 2011. That has not been resolved yet so that we can have the ability to buy flights for US astronauts on Russian spacecraft."

Congressional supporters of the space programme now say that the Georgian confrontation has compounded that problem. Democratic senator Bill Nelson of Florida, where the shuttle launches, said the prospects of passing a waiver are in freefall. "With the aggressiveness of Russia in Georgia, I think it's dead on arrival," he said. "It is a lose-lose situation. We have a $100 billion space station, and in theory, we couldn't even get people up there."

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This looks like a problem. I think the best alternative is to try to milk a few more launches out of the current fleet before it is retired. That could be done by spreading out fewer launches of the shuttle between now and when the new rocket is ready. That would keep the program going with some extended missions.