Iraq is a problem for Obama

Dick Morris and Eileen McGann:

THE shadow of the Iraq War still hovers over the 2008 presidential race. In deed, though it's the issue that made Barack Obama (giving him his running room to Hillary Clinton's left), it may now become his chief vulnerability.

Weak on national-security issues, untried, inexperienced and (perhaps) naive, Obama can find the Iraq issue hard to handle - if John McCain plays it right.

Obama has long since won the issue of Iraq-past - opposing the war before anyone and voting continuously and solidly against it when others waffled.

Yet McCain is winning Iraq-present: A majority of Americans believe that the surge is working. Casualties are down so far that the pessimistic left has shifted its doom-and-gloom to Afghanistan.

But McCain's key opportunity is to exploit the issue of Iraq-future.

To start, he must ask Obama: "Why won't your troop withdrawal allow al Qaeda and Iran to move into the vacuum, taking over Iraq to use it as a base for terror against us and Israel?"

Obama will hem and haw, but McCain must keep at him - and force his opponent to confront the consequences.

How will Obama answer?

He can't shift his position on his signature issue much more - or he'd get an even worse rap for flip-flopping. So he'll start by stressing the ongoing troop presence that he'll allow in Iraq.

He has said (vaguely) that he'll permit sufficient troops to cover our pullout, protect our embassy and pursue al Qaeda terrorists. Now he'll try to sell the idea that his gradual withdrawal over 16 months and his ongoing troop commitment will hold al Qaeda and Iran at bay.

But who'll believe that? Experience has taught Americans to expect the worst about Iraq. They're inclined to agree that, if we pull out, al Qaeda will move in. It's also self-evident that Iranian influence will grow as ours' declines. (To the extent that we do believe it, Obama will alienate the left and drive voters to Ralph Nader.)

His next dodge will be to talk up diplomacy - that a dialogue with the mullahs can hold Iran at bay. But no negotiations are possible with al Qaeda - and Americans realize that talks with Iran will go nowhere unless we have the leverage of force. His reliance on diplomacy will come off as naive, reinforcing the impression that he's not ready for the job.

Eventually, he'll have to say he's prepared to go back into Iraq if the situation deteriorates. Voters will realize that a nominal troop presence and diplomacy won't do the job.

That's when McCain moves in for the kill: "So, isn't your rigid adherence to withdrawal inviting a third Iraq War?"

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I think this is a logical argument. It probably will not persuade the Obama true believes because their opposition to the war in Iraq has always been based more on emotion than logic. Where it has a chance is with the middle who are not opposed to winning in Iraq. The voters who want to lose make up about 30 to 35 percent. Those who want to win make up 40 to 45 percent. What you have in the middle or those who wanted to leave Iraq if we were losing, but are willing to stay if we are winning. These are people who supported the war initially and can be persuaded it is worth the effort to win.

McCain is the best messenger to this group. He supported the winning strategy before the President did so he has much more credibility on the issue than Obama. Obama's argument is that these people were wrong to support the war to begin with. That is a much tougher sale when we are winning.