Drug insurgents threat to government of Mexico
I have been saying for some time that Mexico is under assault from a full fledged drug insurgency. One of the reasons so many of its institutions have been susceptible to corruption is its mordita culture, where each level of government takes "little bites" in order to cut red tape or avoid the rule of law altogether.The head of Mexico's intelligence service has said that drug cartels are threatening the country's democratic institutions, including Congress.
Guillermo Valdes told the Financial Times newspaper that drug traffickers were trying to take over the power of the state.
Gangs have infiltrated police forces, justice departments and government bodies, he said.
Mexico has seen a sharp increase in drug-related violence this year.
Mr Valdes, who is the head of Cisen, the government's intelligence agency, said he could not rule out the possibility that drug money was involved in the campaigns of some members of the national Congress.
"Drug traffickers have become the principal threat because they are trying to take over the power of the state," he told the Financial Times and a small group of foreign media.
The gangs, he said, had grown wealthy from the lucrative drugs trade and had recruited members of police forces, the judiciary and government organisations in order to protect their business.
He said that even federal institutions such as Congress itself could have been targeted by the powerful cartels.
"Congress is not exempt... we do not rule out the possibility that drug money is involved in the campaigns (of some legislators)," he said.
Earlier this month US President George W Bush signed into law a $400m aid package to provide training and equipment for the fight against drug trafficking.
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One of the things most needed by the Mexican army and police is counterinsurgency training. The government could get a leg up on the drug insurgents if they could demonstrate they could protect the people who are aware of the druggies but justifiably fear retribution if they give evidence to the government.
To accomplish this they need to substantially increase their force to space ratio and keep troops and police in a area once the drug insurgents have been chased out. Right now they are still playing whack a mole beating them down in one area and then leaving only to see the insurgents come back in. You can never get teh kind of cooperation you need from the people if you leave them exposed like that.
That criminal insurgency in Mexico has been going on for some time, and it is more than just a casual happening. Looking at the coincidence of the NAFTA fallout in Mexico shows a Nation that lost its traditional path to poverty alleviation and citizen support, a shift to industrial jobs which then evaporated, and then a steep rise in food costs. Part of the problem was FARC, which took over the Medellin and Cali drug cartel supply systems as the criminal cartels fell. That proved to be dangerous territory in the modern world as there are criminal organizations that are as vicious if not more vicious than FARC and run much better, too. Of all the terrorist and criminal elements that showed up in Mexico, one is of particular note: the Red Mafia.
ReplyDeleteThere is one criminal organization that would find a natural home amongst drug trafficking, human trafficking, money laundering, natural gas and oil... that is the Mogilevich operation now shifted over to Group DF. That is the group with major inroads into the Turkmenistan petroleum industry, especially natural gas, has the highest level contacts and, apparently, can put the screws to Iran to destabilize that Nation. Sitting on a $10 billion/year surplus from its Ukraine natural gas holdings, Group DF is one with experience in all aspects of what is needed in Mexico... and in their case the criminal insurgency would be a means to an end. That end is getting a piece of the Mexican petroleum industry... because there is a ready 'cash cow' to be milked from it via its neighbor to the north.
Effective COIN starts with anti-corruption and 'clean' forces: police, military and justice. It is corruption that is cited as the long-term problem in Iraq. I currently count the Iraqi Army and even its police as less corrupt than their Mexican counterparts. In the case of Mexico COIN not only starts in the streets, but also in weeding out corrupt judges, police officers and military personnel. That has never happened in Mexico. The military aspect is important, don't get that wrong, but the 'clear, sustain, hold' cycle breaks down in Mexico in the last two, not the first one. With Mexican Federal forces moonlighting for the criminal element, the hard part of stopping an insurgency once it starts is identifying those corrupt elements and legally taking them down through a non-corrupt justice system.
Unlike standard low level insurgencies of poor people, this insurgency has deep, deep pockets based on world oil and natural gas prices. Group DF is part of the third time Russia has been swindled on the exact, same deal. They dare to extort money from Iran for natural gas. The US is even less of a threat to them than those first two, and, in Mexico, money can now go a long, long way.