Behind al Qaeda's PR offensive

NY Times:

On the night of July 10, 2005, an obscure militant preacher named Abu Yahya al-Libi escaped from an American prison in Afghanistan and rocketed to fame in the world of jihadists.

The breakout from the Bagram Air Base by Mr. Libi and three cellmates — they picked a lock, dodged their guards and traversed the base’s vast acreage to freedom — embarrassed American officials as deeply as it delighted the jihadist movement. In the nearly three years since then, Mr. Libi’s meteoric ascent within the leadership of Al Qaeda has proved to be even more troublesome for the authorities.

Mr. Libi, a Libyan believed to be in his late 30s, is now considered to be a top strategist for Al Qaeda, as well as one of its most effective promoters of global jihad, appearing in a dozen videos on militant Web sites in the past year, counterterrorism officials said. At a time when Al Qaeda seems more inspirational than operational, Mr. Libi stands out as a formidable star whose rise to prominence tracks the group’s growing emphasis on information in its war with the West.

“I call him a man for all seasons for A.Q.,” said Jarret Brachman, a former analyst for the Central Intelligence Agency who is now research director of the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point. “He’s a warrior. He’s a poet. He’s a scholar. He’s a pundit. He’s a military commander. And he’s a very charismatic, young, brash rising star within A.Q., and I think he has become the heir apparent to Osama bin Laden in terms of taking over the entire global jihadist movement.”

The secrecy that envelops Al Qaeda’s leadership structure makes such estimates speculative, other analysts noted. But one Islamist insider said that in addition to youth and charisma, Mr. Libi possessed one skill that Al Qaeda’s leaders had been lacking: religious scholarship. Perhaps with this in mind, Al Qaeda is featuring Mr. Libi, who spent two years in Africa studying Islam, in as many of the videos as the group’s top leaders, Mr. bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahri.

“Bin Laden is an engineer and Zawahri is a medical doctor,” said Dr. Muhammad al-Massari, a Saudi dissident who lives in London. “So it is important that they also present someone who has the role of scholar.”

The varied roles that Mr. Libi plays in these videos, from recruiter to ideological enforcer, also shed light on Al Qaeda’s shifting tactics. In recent months, those tactics have come to include defensive maneuvers aimed at defusing the media counteroperations of the United States and its allies.

Mr. Libi delivers his message with a preacher’s cadence. His black turban drapes down his chest, and he alternates between white Arabic robes and camouflage jackets.

“O Muslim youth in the East and West, who listen to God calling you: ‘Go forth to war, whether it be easy or difficult for you, and strive hard in God’s cause with your possessions and your lives,’ ” he said in a video sermon released this year.

But increasingly, Mr. Libi uses his videos not to expand Al Qaeda’s base, but to shore it up. He has lashed out at moderate Muslim scholars who accuse Al Qaeda of using false interpretations of the Koran to justify jihad. He has mocked Saudi Arabia’s efforts to persuade jailed militants to give up the fight.

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That is because al Qaeda is on a losing streak that only he Democrats can save them from. They have suffered a strategic defeat in Iraq where their message and their methods have been rejected. Zawahiri can lie all he wants to about not attacking the innocent, but he can't convince the Iraqis who have seen al Qaeda up close an personal. Their main strategy in Iraq was to attack non combatants to inflict maximum mass murder for PR purposes. The murders were to make the US and Iraqis look impotent, but they in fact alienated Iraqis and drove them into our arms. Similar things are happening wherever the religious bigots attack. Their operations against the US and Europe have been foiled in increasing numbers and their meetings in Pakistan are being met with Hellfire missiles.

Which brings up another question about this story. In on of the recent attacks al Qaeda's number three guy whose name was al Libi was killed. I did not see where the article distinguishes between two people with the same name. Nor did I notice where it described the fact that the two people he escaped with have been killed by the US or their allies.

I thought his rationalization of statements by former associates disavowing the religious bigots was particular weak, but the Times treats it as if it is somehow clever are irrefutable. It is neither. Too many of these guys have not just disavowed al Qaeda but have switched sides and have led our forces to their former hideouts. Al Qaeda is suffering a serious defeat in Iraq right now and their only hope is to pray for a Democrat victory in November.

That is because the Democrats want to take our foot off their necks in Iraq. The Demcorats are in denial about al Qaeda's operations in Iraq and have completely ignored what both bin Laden and Zawahiri have said about the importance of Iraq to their operations in the last few weeks.