Uribe challenges Chavez

Westhawk:

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President Uribe had the option of conducting the raid against the Reyes encampment and then stepping back from the public stage. Or at the least, limiting his government’s commentary to FARC and its activities.

Instead, President Uribe chose to intensify the crisis by quickly and publicly exposing as much damaging information as he could about FARC’s dealings with the Ecuadorian and Venezuelan governments. Colombia could have quietly discussed the evidence it obtained from the raid with Ecuador and Venezuela in an attempt to achieve satisfaction before going public. Why did President Uribe choose the most inflammatory and embarrassing choice, a choice that leaves Ecuador and Venezuela with no easy ways to back down?

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And if Colombia had to risk open warfare against its neighbors, better to do it now rather than a year or two or five years from now. In the medium term, FARC will still be active, Venezuela will likely be richer, and Venezuela’s military forces will very likely be better equipped and better trained, perhaps with the assistance of Iranian, Hezbollah, and Chinese advisors. And a change of administration in Washington might mean much less U.S. technical and advisor support for the Colombian military.

If open warfare breaks out today pitting Colombia against Ecuador and Venezuela, Colombia would certainly have the advantage. Colombia’s general purpose and special forces units have received years of mentoring from U.S. and U.K. advisors. These forces also have much more field combat experience than any other army in Latin America.

Perhaps most important are the support and sustainment advantages on the Colombian side. The Colombian military will have the benefit of U.S. overhead and electronic intelligence support. Colombia will have much better fixed-wing and helicopter mobility. And Colombia will be able to sustain its forces in the field better than its opponents.

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He goes on to say that Chavez realizes where the advantages lie. I don't think Chavez is that smart. He acts like a blustering bully buffoon. I do agree with Westhawk's analysis of he correlation of forces.

I think that Uribe decided to disclose the evidence so that he could stay on offense. He is trying to change the conversation from Columbia's "violation of sovereignty" to Ecuador's and Venezuela's support of narco terrorist and murderers. I think that change of subject works to Colombia's advantage.