Terror's central headquarters in tribal area of Pakistan

Peter Brooks:

THE next occupant of the White House better have an iron grip on the na tional-security challenges facing the United States in the geopolitical hotbed of South Asia well before taking the oath of office next January.

Why?

Because, like it or not, critical issues involving just the region's key countries of Pakistan, Afghanistan and India are likely to consume a good portion of the next president's time and effort from Day One.

The region is replete with Islamic terrorist and insurgent groups; weak, fragile governments; simmering international political tensions, and rampant narcotics production and trafficking (plus two of the world's nine nuclear arsenals).

The biggest challenge by far is Pakistan, a teeming country of 160 million. From its nuclear stockpile to its political turmoil, from the resurgent Taliban and al Qaeda to its testy ties with India, Pakistan will cost the next president a lot of sleep.

In the region, the most dangerous threat to US national security emanates from the al Qaeda holed up in Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas - including Osama bin Laden and his deputy, Ayman al Zawahiri.

The US director of national intelligence, Mike McConnell, told Congress in February that al Qaeda still poses a serious threat to our interests at home and abroad, and that its "central leadership" in Pakistan is its "most dangerous component."

He added: "The [tribal areas] serves as a staging base for al Qaeda attacks in support of the Taliban" as well as "a location for training new terrorist operatives" and "to maintain a cadre of skilled lieutenants capable of directing operations around the world."

Even more complications will come from Pakistan's new parliament, which will sit in strong opposition to the US-friendly President Pervez Musharraf - and likely push for his ouster. The former general's days could be numbered.

We can expect some level of counterterrorism cooperation to continue. After all, Pakistan saw 50 terror attacks in the last eight months that killed more than 800 people - an unprecedented level of bloodshed.

But the fact is, the Taliban and al Qaeda see Pakistan as easy pickings. The Taliban hopes to put one of the world's most populous Muslim nations under Sharia law. And al Qaeda is especially looking for a victory after taking major hits in Iraq - and would love to get its paws on some nukes.

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I think that most people in Pakistan reject Shari'a law. While the new coalition is anti Musharraf they are mostly anti al Qaeda. Since al Qaeda opposes elections it also opposes the new government. The most troubling member of the new coalition is Sharif, the former prime minister who is too closely tied to Islamic supremacists. If he is operating in national security areas that would be a real problem.

Pakistan's military is still an ally in the war. If the government tries to drift too far from that path, it could lead to another coup.