Howard Dean's Michigan, Florida mess

Dan Balz:

As Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama competed through more than 40 contests over the past two months, Michigan and Florida remained on the sidelines, barred from participating in the Democratic presidential nomination process because they violated party rules. Now, with neither candidate likely to win enough delegates to capture the nomination, the question is whether the two states will end up deciding the race by holding do-over contests this spring.

Clinton's victories on Tuesday have put renewed pressure on the Democratic National Committee to resolve a months-long dispute over whether the Michigan and Florida delegations will be seated at the national convention in Denver in August. Political leaders in the two states, whose decisions to schedule primaries in January in violation of the rules led to their disbarment, are under similar pressure to find a way out of the stalemate.

Elected officials from Michigan and Florida have called on the national committee to relent, arguing that to do otherwise means disenfranchising several million voters from two battleground states. DNC Chairman Howard Dean has been equally firm in arguing that changing the rules could split the party and undermine confidence in the entire nominating process.

The stakes are huge. Florida and Michigan would have had 366 delegates between them. If Clinton or Obama were to score sizable wins in revotes, the states could have a major impact on the delegate margin between the candidates. Obama now has a lead of 140 pledged delegates.

Clinton won both disputed primaries, and she has called for the delegations to be seated. Clinton officials estimate that she would add about 180 pledged delegates to her total if the delegates were awarded on the basis of her vote percentages. Because Obama was not on the Michigan ballot, there is no way to estimate how many he would receive.

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Whether the two states get a Mulligan or not there is a lesson here for those who race to be first. At least in 2008, the early states did not decide the race although they did decide who would not win. If they get their do over, the two states could be much more significant than they would have been with their early primaries. Go figure.