Growing support for victory in Iraq

David Paul Kuhn:

American public support for the military effort in Iraq has reached a high point unseen since the summer of 2006, a development that promises to reshape the political landscape.

According to late February polling conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, 53 percent of Americans — a slim majority — now believe “the U.S. will ultimately succeed in achieving its goals” in Iraq. That figure is up from 42 percent in September 2007.

The percentage of those who believe the war in Iraq is going “very well” or “fairly well” is also up, from 30 percent in February 2007 to 48 percent today.

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The repercussions will be most acutely felt in the presidential contest. Democrats Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton remain committed to a staggered pullout, while Republican John McCain holds steadfast in his support for the Bush administration’s military surge.

In recent years, election results have tracked perceptions about the progress of the war in Iraq. The Democratic wave in the 2006 congressional elections correlated to a low point in the public’s view of the war. The resurgence of McCain’s candidacy also tracks the decrease in U.S. fatalities in Iraq. Monthly troop deaths have dropped by about two-thirds since the summer of 2007, according to Department of Defense records.

Democrats’ resolute support for the withdrawal of U.S. combat forces may soon position them at odds with independent voters, in particular, a constituency they need to retake the White House.

Half of self-identified independents polled now believe the United States should “keep troops in Iraq until the situation has stabilized,” according to polling data assembled by Pew at Politico’s request.

Senior foreign policy aides to Clinton and Obama said, in interviews, that their candidates have no intention of reconsidering their pledges to withdraw troops from Iraq, despite the waning of public opposition.

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Hillary Clinton and Obama can't change now or they will also lose the kooks who want to quit too. They have tied themselves to and investment in defeat and like a "homeowner" who bought at the top of the market with a no interest loan, they are looking at a huge loss. This is what happens when your core beliefs are tied to polling data instead of principals. When the polls switch the guys with principals--McCain looks like the best candidate.

The Washington Post chose to use the same poll to suggest that the public was less aware of what was happening in Iraq. Of course, the media can take responsibility for much of that since they lost interest in the war when we started winning and the causalities started declining. The spike in war news came with the announcement of the surge in January 2007 and as casualties dropped the stories dropped off the table last October. If the coverage had been maintained it would have been even worse for the Democrats because it would have highlighted just how wrong they were voting for retreat over 60 times during the year.