The Democrats' war chest problem

Stuart Rothenberg:

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The problem for Democrats is that the race is certain to get more negative and more personal over the next seven weeks, until Pennsylvania in late April, all but guaranteeing increased bitterness and division. That's not good for a party that would prefer that Clinton and Obama spend their resources attacking Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) rather than each other.

Indeed, the two campaigns' overflowing war chests become something of a problem for the party, instead of an asset. Both Obama and Clinton have so much cash - and will raise more over the next few weeks - that they have plenty of resources to pummel each other with, adding to the division within the party.

The only good news in all of this for Democrats is that Clinton and Obama will continue to spend resources identifying and turning out Democratic voters, and building organizations in states they ordinarily would ignore.
Still, back in the middle of January, liberal Democratic bloggers were chortling over the chaos in the GOP primary, laughing about how the Republican race could go on indefinitely after Mike Huckabee won Iowa, McCain won New Hampshire and Mitt Romney won Michigan. One blogger even encouraged Democrats to participate in the GOP race just to stir the pot and drag out the Republican race. Bad karma. Very bad karma. The 2008 presidential race already has reminded us of something very important: We are a nation of separate states, and states are more than lines on a map. They are more than artificial distinctions.

Each state has its own political culture, its own demographic reality. A candidate who wins in Iowa doesn't automatically win in New Hampshire. Wisconsin voters aren't the same as Ohio voters. Indeed, Hispanic Democrats in Connecticut aren't just like Hispanic Democrats in Texas.

The longer the Democratic race continues, the more likely Obama will come under intense media scrutiny. From Clinton's point of view, the longer the contest goes on, the more the chance that the Illinois Senator will make a mistake, maybe even a major blunder.

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Former Bush strategist Karl Rove said on the Fox News Channel on Tuesday night that McCain may be hurt by the fact that he will become invisible over the next month as members of the national media and the public focus on the Democratic race.

Last time I looked, the general election isn't until November, and McCain could use a few weeks to relax, recharge his batteries, raise money and reach out to party activists and insiders. He's far better off having Democrats and Republicans alike watch Obama and Clinton raise questions about each other's judgment, readiness and character, even if it means the focus isn't on him. He'll have more than enough time to tell his story.

Rove's point was about getting on the front page of the paper and Rothenberg's point is that doing so may not be a good thing for the Democrats' remaining candidates. They are probably both right. I think McCain can use the media to stay in the conversation by attacking the positions of the Democrats. Democrats normally play this game better than Republicans, but the way it works is to say something negative about the positions of your opponents and then the media goes to the opponent and asks him to comment on the negative statement which keeps it going for at least one more news cycle. McCain is clever enough to do so in a "positive" way.