McCain will have few in his corner if he wins

E.J. Dionne:

...

Significantly, many of the leading Republicans championing McCain have never been heroes to the right. Giuliani, a social moderate, quickly endorsed McCain after dropping out on Wednesday. Gov. Charlie Crist, who helped McCain in Florida, earned his popularity as a moderate and appeals to independents and even Democrats. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who backed McCain yesterday, has veered far from conservatism and now works closely with Democrats in the California Legislature.

All this explains the ferocity of the continued resistance to McCain among conservative leaders. Rush Limbaugh has served as a spokesman for their cause. On his radio show Wednesday, Limbaugh excoriated those who "pretend that Senator McCain is the choice of conservatives when exit poll data from every primary state show just the opposite."

"He is not the choice of conservatives, as opposed to the choice of the Republican establishment -- and that distinction is key," Limbaugh declared. "The Republican establishment, which has long sought to rid the party of conservative influence since Reagan, is feeling a victory today as well as our friends in the media."

McCain, of course, has yet to secure the nomination, and his performance in Wednesday's debate was less than inspiring. His straight talk took a crooked path when he repeatedly refused to say whether he would now vote for his own immigration bill. McCain's self-satisfied smile as Romney tried to defend himself against his opponent's essentially false characterization of the former Massachusetts governor's position on the Iraq war was hardly the visage of a gracious winner.

But as one prominent conservative noted Wednesday night, Republican elected officials are starting to fall into line behind McCain, despite their reservations, simply because they think he will win. Their capitulation signals the end of the Reagan-Bush era and the beginning of something quite different.

This is actually a pretty good analysis by Dionne. He recognizes that the conservative vote has been split in the early primaries and that Giuliani's failure to compete in those primaries meant that the moderate and independent vote was not split.

He is very wrong if he thinks a McCain presidency will end the Reagan Bush era. If McCain loses, it will only strengthen the coalition. If he wins, he will find out how lonely it can be without that coalition to back him when he needs its most. For awhile he can coast on the support he gets from the mainstream media, but when they turn on him as they surely will, those on the right who remember how he turned on them will just find the situation interesting instead of rallying to support him.