The benefits of shooting down the failed satellite

Washington Post:

The Bush administration's attempt to shoot down an out-of-control spy satellite as early as this evening will help the military advance its anti-missile and anti-satellite planning and technology, according to space weapons experts and analysts. Both fields are of high interest to the military and of high concern for many other nations.

While U.S. officials have depicted the attempt solely as a precaution against the slim chance that the satellite's hazardous rocket fuel could harm people on Earth, the test will inherently have spillover military consequences, the experts said.

To accomplish this week's task, for example, the Navy has modified its Aegis anti-missile radar system for satellite tracking, making clear that a system designed for missile defense can be transformed into an anti-satellite system in a short time.

The attempted shoot-down will also enable the Pentagon to practice using, in an urgent scenario, key elements of its space defense apparatus, including the Joint Space Operations Center at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California and its sophisticated space identification, tracking and targeting system.

The attempt will further provide an unscripted opportunity to see whether ship-based missiles can blow up the satellite just as it reenters Earth's atmosphere -- a key moment in any attempt to intercept an intercontinental missile that might someday be launched against the United States.

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In 1985, the Air Force successfully tested an air-launched missile to shoot down a satellite, and in 2004, it called for ensuring American "space superiority" in an official policy statement, a phrase meant to cover the denial of enemy access to space when needed.

The Pentagon now spends more than $12 billion annually to develop weapons capable of shooting down missiles entering or leaving space, but it has no dedicated U.S. anti-satellite weapons program in its latest unclassified budget. The military has also worked on a laser project in New Mexico that could have anti-satellite capabilities, and has launched two small satellites that independent experts speculate could be modified to attack, or defend, larger spacecraft.

International treaties, opposition from Congress and concerns about future space debris from anti-satellite tests have all complicated these efforts. The incoming spy satellite, some believe, offers an opportunity to avoid some of those constraints and to test what amounts to an anti-satellite defense.

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David Wright, a senior scientist with the Union of Concerned Scientists, said "there's a real concern among people here and in other nations that the U.S. is trying to develop space weapons in the guise of other systems." The plan to shoot down the satellite, he says, "fuels the flames for those who think we want to build anti-satellite capabilities." Both China and Russia have criticized the planned satellite intercept.

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This is a classic example of turning a problem into an opportunity. The Chinese and the Russians recognize the value of the test, but are constrained from opposing it too vigorously because they see the danger of not destroying the fuel on board the satellite. Democrats probably join them in this dilemma since they are committed to a belief that these programs do not work.