The guy you don't like vs. the guy your not sure you like

Ryan Sager:

BARRING a longshot comeback by Rudy Giuliani in Florida on Jan. 29, GOP voters now face a choice between the guy they're not sure they like, vs. the guy they're sure they dislike - that is, a choice between conservative chameleon Mitt Romney and professional maverick John McCain.

There's already no love lost between Romney and McCain. Their hate for each other is so pure it could wash away sin. But things are only likely to get uglier and more heated from here on in.

In large part, this is set to be a showdown over character, as opposed to ideological differences - making the race look a bit more like the one on the Democratic side. Change versus experience for the Democrats; ostensible authenticity versus absolute artifice for the Republicans.

Make no mistake: This will be a long slog.

The national press, who would have hoisted McCain to the presidency (or a kingship) in 2000, is now eager to try again. As McCain said Saturday night of South Carolina: "What's eight years between friends?" He could just as easily have been taking about his real constituency: the media.

But his win was far less convincing - less of a triumph over the South Carolina curse - than some would like people to think.

It is, perhaps, a measure of the mess this year's primaries have become that we're willing to consider this much of a victory at all. Compared to the race in 2000, McCain actually did worse with the Republican base this time around than he did against George W. Bush. It's merely the fractured field that saw him through. (Fred Thompson surely has a claim on the vice presidential nod should McCain go all the way, given the votes he took from Mike Huckabee on the Arizona senator's behalf.)

Look at the numbers. In 2000, McCain won the votes of some 240,000 South Carolinians, or 42 percent of the GOP electorate to Bush's 53 percent. On Saturday, he won 135,000 votes and 33 percent of the GOP electorate. Turnout was down overall (as it's been all over, a bad sign for the GOP) by about 25 percent - but a 100,000-voter drop versus the last time he ran still points up just how weak he is with the GOP base.

Also, you can look at how he's fared with various groups measured in the exit polls. In 2000, McCain won 29 percent of self-described conservatives; on Saturday, that number was down slightly to 26 percent. He did somewhat better among Republicans, 31 percent this year versus 26 percent in 2000 - but, again, not a terribly significant change. Among independents, McCain is actually down significantly from 2000. This year he got 42 percent of their votes, versus 60 percent eight years ago.

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And what utterly opposite candidacies the two men represent. The man who will say anything to please, versus the man who says anything he pleases.

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It is that latter quality that has led to much animosity toward Romney. I haven't seen a poll on either's negatives lately with GOP voters, but I would not be surprised to see them tied. McCain would do much better to say, this is my position, but I understand the base is not there yet and will need to be persuaded before there is a push for some of his unpopular positions.

What is scaring away Republican voters is the fear that he will work with Democrats to implement issues that the base hates. That is less of a fear with Romney, but it is still a concern. Rudy on the other hand has made it clear that on issues where he has been on the other side, the base has nothing to fear from him. I suspect that Huckabee is probably in the same position or positions now.

Bob Novak thinks McCain has adjusted, somewhat.

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The older, wiser McCain is more careful and less combative. On primary day here, as I sat with other reporters in the rear of McCain's "Straight Talk Express" bus, I asked him about DeLay's statement on Fox the night before. DeLay had said he could not vote for McCain even against Hillary Clinton because of the grave damage he had done to the Republican Party.

Graham, seated nearby, snorted in disbelief. But McCain limited himself to the polite comment that he and DeLay had disagreements. Indeed, the 2000 McCain's emphasis on campaign finance reform and opposition to tax cuts were missing from his 2008 campaigning here. He has adjusted his support for immigration reform to negate the issue.

But McCain has not entirely abandoned "straight talk" in seeking Republican anointment. I asked him Saturday whether he knew of any instance of an economic stimulus such as Bush's proposed $800-per-taxpayer handout actually averting a recession. He said that he did not and that the proposal bothered him.

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More adjustment is needed. McCain and Graham don;t seem to comprehend the damage they have done to the party.