Clinton gets ready to lose again

Jackie Calmes:

With Barack Obama strongly favored -- even within Hillary Clinton's camp -- to win a second straight victory in today's New Hampshire Democratic primary, both rivals are looking to the next battle grounds. But his momentum threatens to swamp her in the next two states as well and shows signs of fracturing her support in the party establishment.

Already some Clinton associates have begun lobbying for her early exit if she loses the primary by a big margin, as polls suggest she could. Several Senate colleagues who have sat on the fence are now in talks with Obama advisers about endorsing the freshman Illinois senator over his more experienced colleague.

Despite raising more than $100 million, Sen. Clinton also faces financial worries as contributions have begun to slacken. But she vows to fight on: Her campaign will pivot to focus more heavily on "Super Tuesday" Feb. 5, when 21 states vote. "We are going all the way to the convention," Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson said.

till, the maneuverings marked an extraordinary turn, and underscored the power of small, early-voting states to scramble all bets -- especially in a year when the states' contests are so closely scheduled. Sen. Clinton until now continued to hold wide leads in national polls; a new Gallup poll has her slipping into a dead heat. Her original campaign strategy, aimed at positioning her as the inevitable nominee who would capture the early states and wrap up the nomination before February, is now in shambles.

Sen. Clinton uncharacteristically bared the strain of her plight and the grueling campaign pace yesterday: She momentarily choked up with tear-filled eyes after a woman at a Portsmouth, N.H., cafe inquired as to how she gets ready for the campaign each day. "I have so many ideas for this country, and I just don't want to see us fall backwards as a nation," she said, her voice cracking. "This is very personal for me." (See related article.)

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Clinton still has a small lead in the national polls, which makes suggestions that she will drop out seem ludicrous. While she may be short of cash, she probably is not short of donors at this point. While I am not a fan, her policies make more sense than her Democrat rivals, especially Obama who is delusional on Iraq. Her problem is that the kook base of he Democrat party is looking for a candidate who is delusional on Iraq and the echo chamber of the Democrat primary system, plus the liberal media is leading that party to a big surprise when they have to face reality on that issue in the general election. They will miss her triangulation if she drops out. I don't think she will or should.

Jay Costs looks at a Plan B strategy for Clinton.

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First, Democratic primaries and caucuses allocate delegates proportionally. Candidates win "pledged" delegates based not on whether they win a state - but on how many voters support them. So, for instance, even though Clinton and Edwards lost Iowa, they still won a few delegates.

Second, about 20% of all delegates to the Democratic convention are "super" or "unpledged" delegates. This quirky provision - which does not have a corollary on the Republican side - has its origins in Chicago, 1968. In the wake of that disastrous convention, the DNC formed the McGovern-Fraser Commission to recommend improvements for the nomination process. McGovern-Fraser suggested that the process be opened to rank-and-file Democrats on the principle of "one Democrat, one vote." The reforms contributed to George McGovern (the same McGovern from the commission) winning the nomination in 1972. The party establishment did not like this. So, it added the super delegate provision to serve as a check on the party rank-and-file.

This year, according to the indispensable Green Papers, there will be 798 super delegates at the convention in Denver. They include all elected members of the Democratic National Committee, all current Democratic members of Congress (including non-voting delegates), all sitting Democratic governors, and past party luminaries (e.g. former presidents). Unlike pledged delegates, who are bound to particular candidates, super delegates are free to vote their consciences.

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It would probably take more political courage than the "super" delegates possess to overturn the results of the primaries, yet the proportional provisions do give her a shot since she is currently losing in some very small states.