What happened to Rudy v. Hillary?

Michael Goodwin:

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The problem is that both are suffering damage to the shaky foundations of their campaigns. She was inevitable, and he was a national hero. Now they have been wounded by the rough-and-tumble of retail politics.

She oozed entitlement — that the nomination was hers because her name was Clinton and she wanted it. She could be a defense hawk one day, a dove the next and nobody was supposed to cry foul. She should be allowed to duck tough issues to preserve flexibility for the general election.

But inevitability is not a rationale, and her whole approach shattered like glass when the first hits against her credibility landed during the Oct. 30 debate at Philadelphia. Everything since has been downhill for her while Obama is finding his groove, to where he has an even chance of taking the nomination.

Rudy, too, is suffering from blows he should have seen coming. Although he has done a good job of dealing with abortion, he was surprisingly unprepared for the first questions about his adulterous affair with Judith Nathan. Questions about his business clients are growing, and he doesn't seem ready for those, either, suggesting they are unfair.

That the tough issues surfaced just as Huckabee was catching fire is no coincidence. A mistake or a revelation only matters if there is someone to take advantage of it, and Huckabee's fresh appeal is yielding amazing gains. In Florida, the firewall state for Giuliani's strategy, the latest poll showed Huckabee erasing a 14-point Rudy lead in a week.

There is a theory among political cognoscenti that Hillary and Rudy will survive because they need each other. Because they are so perfectly matched, they are the best argument for nominating each other, the theory goes. Thus, when one rises, the other will, too.

That's a good theory, but somebody better tell the voters.

I think Hillary is probably in better shape than Rudy at this point. While both of the candidates who are surging, Obama and Huckabee are deeply flawed, the momentum with which Rudy has fallen seems more significant. I still think he would make a better president, but his life style is an issue he has yet to comfort the voters on. I think they were willing to accept the serial marriages. What seems to be a problem is the public cost of his affair. Doing it on the public dime appears to be a bridge too far.