Rudy Giuliani looks to Florida for nomination

Matt Berger:

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While other candidates have become regular presences in the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire, an appearance from Giuliani remains rare. He has made trips in recent weeks to Florida, New Jersey, Missouri, Illinois and other states that many of the other White House contenders haven't visited yet. In part, Giuliani is following the money, holding public events in cities he is visiting primarily to raise campaign cash.

But the former New York City mayor is also spending more time in states that go to the polls in late January and early February, banking on a strong showing in places that will play a larger role in this year's primary cycle than in years past. Even if one candidate emerges as the front-runner after Iowa and New Hampshire, Giuliani campaign officials believe they will have just begun to fight.

"Everyone seems to be, obviously, focused on the traditional path of winning the early states and then having momentum throughout," campaign manager Michael DuHaime told reporters last month. "I think what we see is there's a possibility of two paths."

Giuliani's path focuses squarely on a strong victory in Florida on Jan. 29. The state will be the largest delegate contest in January -- even if the Republican Party strips half of the state's delegates for holding an early contest -- and is a better constituency for Giuliani than Iowa or New Hampshire.

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Campaign aides believe a big win in Florida could catapult Giuliani to a strong showing on Feb. 5, when more than 15 states will go to the polls. They include states that are more prone to like Giuliani as well, including California, Illinois, Missouri and the New York tri-state area.

Right now, Giuliani is ahead in national polls. The latest Gallup/USA Today poll shows Giuliani with 25 percent of Republican support, with a three-way tie for second between former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (16 percent), former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson (15 percent) and Arizona Sen. John McCain (15 percent). The poll has a 3 percent margin of error.

But focusing on later primary states means Giuliani could incur almost a month of bad press if he has a poor showing in the early states. Some analysts believe another candidate, perhaps Romney, could emerge as the front-runner by then if he decisively wins both Iowa and New Hampshire.

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He appears to be betting against momentum. However, he also appears to be playing to where he is strong and his calculation must be that he will lose less by failing where he does not compete than he would by pushing hard and failing in those states. If he wins that bet, it could change primary politics for the better in the future and take away the disproportionate effects of a few small states.