Petraeus looks at the new security situation in Iraq

AP/Washington Post:

Citing a 60 percent decline in violence in Iraq over the last six months, Gen. David Petraeus said Thursday that maintaining security is easier than establishing it and gives him more flexibility in deploying forces.

Armed with charts showing that as of Wednesday, weekly attacks and Iraqi civilian deaths have plunged to levels not seen here since early 2006, Petraeus said the reduction lets him make force adjustments to address remaining problem areas, which would include northern Iraq.

Speaking to reporters at the U.S. military's Camp Victory, he said the improved security is due to a number of factors including a "a reduction in some of the signature attacks that are associated with weapons provided by Iran," as well as a cease-fire called by radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr that he said had a particularly noticeable impact what had been one of the most violent areas of Baghdad.

And he said there has been a "reduction in some of the signature attacks" associated with insurgents using Iranian weapons, including deadly armor-piercing rounds.

But, he added, that it is "hard to tell if that's because there has already been a cessation of provision of those items, or if there has been direction to stop."

At the same time, he said the military has detained individuals as recently as October who were trained by Iranians, evidence that the instruction has continued.

Petreaus, who is scheduled to give Congress and the American people an update next March on progress in Iraq, and map out some plans for U.S. force levels down the road, refused to offer too much optimism.

"Nobody says anything about turning a corner, seeing lights at the end of tunnels, any of those other phrases," said Petraeus. "You just keep your head down and keep moving."

He said that around Thanksgiving commanders looked back at violence levels a year ago, and six months ago, and found a declining line in which violence had declined from a time when hundreds of Iraqis were killed and injured and US troops took heavy losses in a number of horrific attacks, to a time of still somewhat steady but less deadly attacks, to a day last month when there were just 45-50 attacks.

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"There's nobody in uniform who is doing victory dances in the end zone," said Petraeus, saying it will require more tough work against a very dangerous adversary.

That is a good attitude for a commander in the field, but we bloggers do not have to be so cautious. We still have to fight the political enemies of victory in Iraq and we should not give them any hope that their desperation for defeat still has a chance. At this point they are still the enemies best hope for survival in Iraq.

What we had after the Samara mosque bombing was a surge of violence by al Qaeda and a counter surge by Shia militia aimed at Sunnis. We have been able to beat back both surges. Those Democrats who claim the reduced violence is because Sadr told his forces to stand down miss the reason why he told them that. He did so because the surge had the effect of killing the al Qaeda operations and would have destroyed his forces too if they did not stand down. Petraeus notes that we are still capturing and killing some Iranian backed forces.