Petraeus cautious about troop reductions

Washington Post:

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Petraeus outlined a strategy for handling what he called "the thinning out of our forces" as 17,500 soldiers and 4,000 Marines depart by July. He said he has asked each U.S. brigade commander to consider the U.S. and Iraqi forces and local volunteers they have available, gauge the intensity of the insurgent threat and map out incremental plans to "step back a bit" and shift to mentoring while allowing Iraqi forces to take the lead.

The transition strategy will link future troop reductions to continued improvements in security, which Petraeus called "heartening" in recent months. Weekly attacks in Iraq as of the end of November had declined to a level not seen consistently since mid-2005, he said. Iraqi civilian deaths are at their lowest level since the end of 2005, and November had the lowest number of U.S. troop deaths for 20 months, according to U.S. military figures.

Among several factors leading to the reduced violence, Petraeus pointed to what he called the decision by "a majority . . . of the militia" associated with Sadr to honor a cease-fire.

In striking contrast to the U.S. military's previous wariness -- if not hostility -- toward the young firebrand cleric, Petraeus praised Sadr personally for "working to rid his movement of criminal elements" and making a "pledge of honor" to uphold the cease-fire announced in August. He said the United States is in indirect dialogue with "senior members" of Sadr's organization to maintain the cease-fire.

"The Sadr trend stands for service to the people," and the goal is for Sadr and his followers to become "constructive partners in the way ahead," Petraeus said in an interview with defense reporters traveling with Gates.

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This is not particularly surprising since one of the reasons things have gotten better is that Petraeus has been willing to speak with all factions and get them on board the anti al Qaeda bandwagon. Sadr still hates us, but he is too weak to fight and it is too his benefit to cooperate at this time.

Petraeus' cautiousness on troop draw downs is prudent and wise. It would be a mistake to through away gains by beating a hast retreat. It is time to consolidate those gains and build up Iraqis to take over their own security.