Pakistan drives Taliban from Swat valley

Washington Post:

The rebel commander's radio station is off the air, and his house has been blown up. On the streets, army troops patrol, not insurgents. Ever so slowly, residents are starting to return.

Weeks after launching a major operation to retake the scenic Swat Valley from Islamic extremists, Pakistan's government has claimed a rare victory. While the operation is still not complete, the radical fighters who swore allegiance to a charismatic, pro-Taliban cleric have retreated into the hills and, for now at least, seem to have surrendered their former stronghold.

Maulana Fazlullah is on the run. He'll be caught sooner or later," said an army spokesman, Maj. Gen. Waheed Arshad.

The true tests for Pakistan's government will be if it can hold the territory and whether it can translate relative success in Swat into victories in other besieged areas of the country's volatile northwest.

A Western military official called Swat "a comparatively easy fight," but potentially a good model for Pakistan's battle against extremism -- if the army chooses to take lessons from its experience in Swat and apply them elsewhere.

"We're hopeful that after stabilizing Swat, they move on to North or South Waziristan," the official said, referring to two notorious Taliban and al-Qaeda havens that hug the Afghan border. "But I have been disappointed so many times, I'm not willing to say that's what's going to happen."

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The Western official, who would speak only on condition of anonymity, said the government has to prove to the people of Swat that it is willing to help them piece together their lives. "I haven't seen any evidence that the Pakistanis are fixing things after they're broken, and that's a concern," the official said.

Swat is considered critically important to Pakistan's fight against militancy because, unlike the tribal areas of North and South Waziristan, it is part of the so-called settled areas of the country. Its population is relatively well-off and educated, and it had not traditionally been a hotbed of religious extremism. Indeed, it was a prime tourist spot, known as "the Switzerland of Asia" for its breathtaking mountains, lakes and glaciers. But the area had recently fallen under the spell of Fazlullah, a young firebrand cleric who used a pirated FM radio signal to broadcast calls for jihad up and down the valley.

He also implemented an extreme interpretation of Islamic law -- publicly flogging suspected criminals, burning television sets and threatening barbers with severe retribution if they shaved their customers' beards.

The government initially dispatched the police and a paramilitary force known as the Frontier Corps to confront Fazlullah, but both were quickly overwhelmed. In November, the army rolled in.

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The key for Pakistan will be to make the police and Frontier Corps effective in protecting the people from the Shari'a predators of the Taliban. That is what counterinsurgency requires. It starts with turning local people into an effective militia that can stop the insurgents and defeat them with the help of the army. It is vital that Pakistan create a strong counterinsurgency force. The US is working with the Pakistan government to create such forces. I expect special forces teams will be working closely with the Pakistan army to create groups that can protect the people.

Bill Roggio reports that Pakistan's Taliban has decided to go with centralized control.

As President Pervez Musharraf lifts the state of emergency, the Taliban in the tribal areas and the Northwest Frontier Province have united under a single banner, and a single leader. On Friday, a shura, or council, of 40 senior Taliban leaders established the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan -- the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan -- and appointed powerful South Waziristan Taliban commander Baitullah Mehsud its leader.

The shura was made up of Taliban representatives from the seven tribal agencies of North and South Waziristan, Khyber, Orakazi, Bajaur, Mohmand, and Kurram, as well as the settled districts of Swat, Bannu, Tank, Lakki Marwat, Dera Ismail Khan, Kohistan, Buner, and the Malakand division.

The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan demanded the Pakistani military halt operations in Taliban territory and release of their members. The Taliban also stated it would continue the fight against Coalition forces in Afghanistan.

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This is not a smart move by the Taliban. They are the weaker force and they survive because of their decentralized control. By having an overall commander it will be easier for the US and its allies to get inside their decision loop and target their command and control elements.