The new information on Iran

LA Times:

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According to current and former U.S. intelligence officials familiar with the matter, the information that surfaced this summer included intercepted conversations of Iranian officials discussing the country's nuclear weapons program, as well as a journal from an Iranian source that documented decisions to shut it down.

"When we first got some of this stuff, the fact that we got it was exciting," said a senior U.S. intelligence official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the classified nature of the subject. He said the information was obtained as part of a stepped-up effort targeting Iran that President Bush had ordered in 2005, but the problem with it "was digesting it to know what we had."

The information triggered a cascade of recalculations across the 16 agencies in the U.S. intelligence community, the official said. Analysts at the CIA and elsewhere began to revisit classified reports that they had scrutinized repeatedly in recent years. As they did so, officials said, they saw details that added up to the new conclusion.

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What I find troubling about this is the source of the information. It should be no secret to Iran that the NSA intercepts communications. Thanks to the NY Times they know much more about this than they should. It is not unreasonable to believe that they could script a conversation that would grab the attention of the intelligence service.

Intercepts that contain information about impending attacks are certainly valuable. Those that contain self serving information should be highly suspect, especially if it is intended to establish some historical event more than four years ago. Ask yourself how many conversations you have about events that long ago. You also have to ask why Iran did not turn this information over to the IAEA when they shut down their bomb program. I remain skeptical about this assessment.