Is China's military slipping from civilian control?

Bill Gertz:

Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said yesterday that recent military incidents involving the U.S. and China indicate troubling signs of division between Beijing's military and the nation's communist political leaders.

China's refusal to permit U.S. Navy ship visits to Hong Kong last month and a provocative anti-satellite weapon test in January are prompting U.S. intelligence agencies to worry that the Chinese military is not under the control of the civilian government in Beijing, according to other defense officials.

Mr. Gates voiced similar concerns yesterday when asked by a reporter whether China had explained why it barred the aircraft carrier Kitty Hawk and accompanying warships from making a Thanksgiving Day port call in Hong Kong.

"What has been interesting to me this year is that I think we have had two situations in which there appears to have been a disconnect within the Chinese government," Mr. Gates said.

After the Chinese military's successful January test of a missile against a weather-satellite target, China's Foreign Ministry "didn't seem to understand or know what had happened" and indicated "confusion" over the test, he said.

"We seem to have had a little bit of the same thing with the Kitty Hawk, where the military may have made a decision that was not communicated to the political side of the government," Mr. Gates said. "Now, I don't know that for a fact, but there's just some hint of that."

A senior defense official said that Chinese President Hu Jintao was familiar with China's secret anti-satellite weapon program but may not have known about the Jan. 11 test, which contradicted China's public position against the development and deployment of space weapons.

A senior U.S. military officer said there also were signs earlier this year that senior Chinese air force generals were not aware of the existence of the anti-satellite weapons program, which is thought to be a top-secret effort directed by the Communist Party's Central Military Commission. It is led by Mr. Hu as chairman and has two senior Chinese generals as vice chairmen.

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The story suggest that compartmentalization may be effecting more than military operations. It all goes back to the lack of transparency on the Chinese government and in their military budgeting and operations. The concern is that it might lead to a miscalculation by some out of the control of the government that will drag the whole country into a conflict it is not prepared for.