Iraq troop cuts will be outside Baghdad

LA Times:

In a change of plans, American commanders in Iraq have decided to keep their forces concentrated in Baghdad when the buildup strategy ends next year, removing troops instead from outlying areas of the country.

The change represents the military's first attempt to confront its big challenge in 2008: how to cut the number of troops without sacrificing security.

The shift in deployment strategy, described by senior U.S. military officials in Iraq and Washington, is based on concerns that despite recent improvements, the capital could again erupt into widespread violence without an imposing American military presence.

A year ago, when U.S. patrols in Baghdad were sparse and sectarian killings were spiraling out of control, President Bush proposed a troop buildup in part to establish order in the capital. Over the last four months, violence in the capital has begun to abate.

But the most significant improvements have been in outlying areas, where the first of about 28,500 additional troops arrived in February, followed by gradual improvements in Baghdad. Military planners at first thought it would be the other way around.

"There was a sense we would focus very significantly on Baghdad and change would come from Baghdad out," said a senior military official in Washington, who like others spoke on condition of anonymity when discussing troop strategy. "What we are seeing is just the opposite, it is probably outside-in, toward Baghdad."

The withdrawals are occurring over the next eight months as the military gradually reverses the troop buildup that was completed in June.

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The new planning is not without risk and controversy. The change in U.S. deployment strategy is likely to shift the balance of political power in Iraq by putting much greater authority over provincial affairs in the hands of local and regional officials. That will increase their influence and offset the authority of the Shiite-dominated central government in Baghdad.

In addition, some of the early troop reductions will take place in areas such as Anbar province, the site of raging insurgency in the recent past.

Nonetheless, the international military pullback from outlying areas is underway. Today, the British will hand over authority for Basra province and the south to the Iraqi government. Next, U.S. officers expect to hand over western provinces to Iraqi control, including Anbar, followed by still-unstable provinces north of Baghdad, say military leaders in Washington and Iraq.

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What this reflects is the greater reconciliation and locals taking responsibility for their own security in the outlying regions. I don't think that all areas will see the same thing. Wherever al Qaeda continues to concentrate, there will be the need for US assistance to local forces. Right now this appears to be in the north of the country where they are trying to hang on.