The Huckabee appeal

Stuart Rothenberg:

A slew of new polls have confirmed that former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee's Iowa surge has catapulted him to the lead in the GOP caucuses. He shows movement in other state and national polling as well, though not in New Hampshire.

The Huckabee boomlet has been stunningly swift, even surprising those who say they saw it coming many weeks ago.

The source of Huckabee's appeal to conservative and evangelical Republicans is pretty simple. He's not a flip-flopping Mormon or a pro-abortion-rights, pro-gay-rights, pro-gun-control adulterer. And he's never put his name on a bill with Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.) or Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wis.), or lambasted the Christian right.

In a sense, Huckabee is the second coming of former Sen. Fred Thompson (R-Tenn.), who now seems about as relevant as a typewriter at a bloggers' convention.

Thompson, of course, was conservatives' first great hope of keeping the Republican Party on a course set out by Ronald Reagan more than a quarter century ago. If you recall, he was going to be the "new Reagan."

Thompson shot up in the polls even before Republican voters had given him a good look. They didn't know much about him other than he filled a role they wanted filled.

When the real Thompson seemed less energetic and appealing than the imagined Thompson, Republicans fell out of love with him. They were still looking for someone not named Giuliani, Romney or McCain when they found Huckabee, a quirky (diet- conscious former pastor) Southerner who talks in a conversational style, emphasizes conservatism and common sense, and seems to lack the flaws other Republicans have.

Huckabee always looked like the conservative alternative, and he is now filling that role. His strength in Iowa and South Carolina, but not New Hampshire, suggests that he is appealing to social conservatives in general and evangelicals in particular.

...

First, journalists like Huckabee and say he sounds "reasonable." Yes, he's socially conservative, but they like his views on immigration, taxes and government, as well as his sense of humor and appreciation for popular culture. They find him charming. For conservatives who see most journalists as the enemy, those words are faint praise.

Second, and of far greater importance, Huckabee has zero experience and credibility on foreign policy and national security -- the top issue to many Republicans since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, and the one issue that the Republican nominee may be able to use to hold onto the White House.

With wars going on in Iraq and Afghanistan, Russia looking like the old Soviet Union, the president of Venezuela sounding like a crackpot and terrorist forces still looking to inflict pain on the United States and its allies, defense and national security issues are certain to be important in next year's election.

...

This is a pretty good analysis. A Huckabee candidacy would forfeit the main strength of the GOP in the coming election. Charm can get you only so far as can being "none of the above." However, the other candidates have made their own record and have to either explain it and persuade Republicans to live with it. So far, they are failing in that effort.