Giuliani's last hurdle to nomination

Michael Goodwin:

The patron saint of scandal, one William Jefferson Clinton, gives hope to all politicians on the hot seat. Borrowing a page from Friedrich Nietzsche, Bubba is said to counsel those under fire that "whatever doesn't kill you makes you stronger." So Rudy Giuliani can take heart from an unlikely bedfellow.

Well, maybe not so unlikely, given that Giuliani's current problem stems from the same sort of fix that almost got Clinton booted from the White House. There's no report of a stained blue dress in Giuliani's past, but skeletons from his randy ways are suddenly tumbling out of the closet just the same.

The report by Politico.com that, as New York mayor, Giuliani scattered security costs for his visits to then gal pal and now wife, Judith Nathan, in obscure city agencies has thrown open the door to the mayor's dark period. Giuliani's claim the article was a "political hit job" and was "really done to try to focus on my personal life" are probably true — whoever tipped a reporter about the odd billing obviously aimed for political gold. But the test is not a whodunit, but whether Giuliani's presidential hopes can survive a fresh look at his personal past.

If he does, a juicy reward awaits him. The adultery-divorce saga that marked much of his second term, before 9/11, is the largest hurdle in his path. If he can clear it, there is probably nothing or no one to stop him from claiming the GOP nomination.

Having already defied the odds by surviving scrutiny of his support for gun control, gay rights and abortion rights, Giuliani shouldn't be surprised his second divorce and third marriage are now getting their turn under the microscope. In whatever form it surfaced, the issue was destined to be put into play. The only scenario in which it would not have emerged is if he had already been rejected by GOP primary voters because of his relatively liberal record on social issues.

But that hasn't happened, as Giuliani has navigated his way around those issues and defined the race more on his terms. His crimefighting, tax-cutting, welfare-reducing record in New York, plus the "America's Mayor" tag from 9/11, have served him well. Ditto for his strategy of running against Hillary Clinton from day one, a clever pitch to primary voters that rejecting him might hand her the White House.

So far, it's worked. Although his standing in the polls has slipped from its highs — he led by 25 points in February — he is still the front-runner in most national surveys by 15 points or so. He trails in some states, but there is no consensus rival who has matched his widespread drawing power.

So now comes the main event — scrutiny of the reckless way Giuliani carried on an open affair with Nathan and dumped wife Donna Hanover in front of the TV cameras. If Giuliani has a seat belt and crash helmet, he should fasten them.

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This is also an interesting test for the media scandal double standard. So far this campaign we know that the Clinton campaign has been used as a prop in at least two fraud schemes, but the media outrage meter barely ticked on those stories and they quickly faded. For several days the media outrage meter has been pegged on this story. It has much of the trappings of a successful Clinton politics of personal destruction hit job on an adversary. Sort of like the ones they used to do on Newt Gingrich or other congressional Republicans. Rudy's test will be whether he can do as good a job as Bill Clinton at arguing that this is "old news" or the other standard excuses.