Current state of Iowa GOP caucus politics
One of my regular readers is from Iowa and offers some insight into the GOP "race" in the state.
Rudy Giuliani has some support among lawyers who are pretty dependable caucus goers. My guess is that by the nature of their trade, they are fairly persuasive, and may have friends who will go along with them. I think Rudy would make the best president in the group, but he may not be the best candidate because of his personal problems.
Fred Thompson is investing a lot of time in the state, but despite his on screen charm, he may not be making a connection in the retail politics of the state. He is drawing good crowds, but is not making the sale consistently. Robert Novak sees Thompson as the "X factor" in the race. I suspect that is because he has fewer negatives than the other candidates, rather than any broad based appeals.
Mitt Romney probably has the best organization in the state and still has a strong core of support. His religion is probably not as strong a factor in his opposition as is his ambiguity of passions, i.e. flip flopping on issues. This probably hurts him more on issues like national security than social issues. Voters are concerned that he might be persuaded to compromise on defense or fighting the enemy.
Mike Huckabee has momentum and a core of support among some religious groups. His foreign policy positions have probably hurt him with those who are national security voters. He apparently is neck and neck with Romney still. He still lacks a strong organization and the financing to move beyond Iowa. He may do well in South Carolina and elsewhere in the south. Whether he can put together a national campaign coming out of Iowa is still a big question.
John McCain still has some support in Iowa, but appears to be placing his bet on New Hampshire, where he has a shot at winning. The endorsement of the local paper may help some, but is unlikely to push him into a top finish.
My two favorites, Giuliani and Thompson are probably miscast for Iowa caucus politics, but if they survive the early states, they would be positioned to win in some big states where they can communicate their message through ads and the media. I like both of them, but will vote for Rudy if the race is still undecided when the Texas primary comes up. I think Giuliani's leadership and willingness to confront the opposition are the determining factors.
This Wall Street Journal/NBC demonstrates that the election is now up for grabs national in the Republican race, with Guiliani and Romney tied and Huckabee and McCain close behind. Fred Thompson is fifth in this poll.
The Washington Post/ABC News poll makes it a two man race with Romney back in the lead and Huckabee staying close. Thompson and Giuliani have fallen to single digits and Ron Paul is ahead of McCain. The poll ranks immigration as the number one issue for Iowa voters, which probably explains some of McCain's numbers.
Rasmussen found different results with his poll. He has Huckabee at 28, Romney at 27 and McCain surging to 14 percent. The disparity in all these polls indicates how difficult it is to predict a caucus contest where no one can muster even a third of the voters. With the race this fluid it is hard to say that any results will be meaningful in upcoming primaries.
Rudy Giuliani has some support among lawyers who are pretty dependable caucus goers. My guess is that by the nature of their trade, they are fairly persuasive, and may have friends who will go along with them. I think Rudy would make the best president in the group, but he may not be the best candidate because of his personal problems.
Fred Thompson is investing a lot of time in the state, but despite his on screen charm, he may not be making a connection in the retail politics of the state. He is drawing good crowds, but is not making the sale consistently. Robert Novak sees Thompson as the "X factor" in the race. I suspect that is because he has fewer negatives than the other candidates, rather than any broad based appeals.
Mitt Romney probably has the best organization in the state and still has a strong core of support. His religion is probably not as strong a factor in his opposition as is his ambiguity of passions, i.e. flip flopping on issues. This probably hurts him more on issues like national security than social issues. Voters are concerned that he might be persuaded to compromise on defense or fighting the enemy.
Mike Huckabee has momentum and a core of support among some religious groups. His foreign policy positions have probably hurt him with those who are national security voters. He apparently is neck and neck with Romney still. He still lacks a strong organization and the financing to move beyond Iowa. He may do well in South Carolina and elsewhere in the south. Whether he can put together a national campaign coming out of Iowa is still a big question.
John McCain still has some support in Iowa, but appears to be placing his bet on New Hampshire, where he has a shot at winning. The endorsement of the local paper may help some, but is unlikely to push him into a top finish.
My two favorites, Giuliani and Thompson are probably miscast for Iowa caucus politics, but if they survive the early states, they would be positioned to win in some big states where they can communicate their message through ads and the media. I like both of them, but will vote for Rudy if the race is still undecided when the Texas primary comes up. I think Giuliani's leadership and willingness to confront the opposition are the determining factors.
This Wall Street Journal/NBC demonstrates that the election is now up for grabs national in the Republican race, with Guiliani and Romney tied and Huckabee and McCain close behind. Fred Thompson is fifth in this poll.
The Washington Post/ABC News poll makes it a two man race with Romney back in the lead and Huckabee staying close. Thompson and Giuliani have fallen to single digits and Ron Paul is ahead of McCain. The poll ranks immigration as the number one issue for Iowa voters, which probably explains some of McCain's numbers.
Rasmussen found different results with his poll. He has Huckabee at 28, Romney at 27 and McCain surging to 14 percent. The disparity in all these polls indicates how difficult it is to predict a caucus contest where no one can muster even a third of the voters. With the race this fluid it is hard to say that any results will be meaningful in upcoming primaries.
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