The coming transition in Iraq

David Ignatius:

Gen. David Petraeus has an enviable problem as he ponders his next report to Congress about the U.S. mission in Iraq. His military surge has been so successful in reducing violence that some officials -- at the Pentagon and the State Department, not to mention in the Democratic Congress -- are wondering whether Petraeus can accelerate his timetable for withdrawal of U.S. troops.

What's clear from conversations here is that 2008 will be a year of transition in Iraq. Recent military success has only reinforced the need for political reconciliation among Iraq's factions. To that end, U.S. diplomats are planning a surge of their own starting in January, to push the Iraqi government to pass reform legislation and take more responsibility for the country's future.

Petraeus summarized the good news about security in an interview Tuesday in his office in the Republican Palace. Wearing a down jacket over his Army uniform to ward off the winter chill, he described the remarkable improvements since the U.S. troop surge reached full strength over the summer. Behind him was a chart outlining his "anaconda strategy" against al-Qaeda. Like the giant snake, Petraeus said, the American military is destroying its prey by "squeezing, squeezing, squeezing."

The U.S. commander said the level of violence in Iraq is down about 60 percent from summer's peak in every major category -- overall attacks, U.S. casualties and Iraqi civilian casualties. In Anbar province, once the epicenter of the insurgency, the number of attacks has fallen from 1,350 in October 2006 to fewer than 100 per month. Last week, there were just 12 attacks in Anbar.

Lt. Gen. Ray Odierno, the deputy commander here, said in a separate interview that the fight in Iraq is increasingly "a communal struggle," with intra-Shiite and intra-Sunni battles for control of particular areas. The danger of a broad Sunni-Shiite civil war has been "reversed" for now, he said.

"None of this should be interpreted as victory dances in the end zone because this is a tough, tough endeavor," Petraeus cautioned. "And you won't find anybody in uniform who would be anything other than cautious" about troop levels.

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Still, it is very different from the state of denial of Harry Reid who is determined to stay willfully ignorant of the progress. Reid is as delusional as al Qaeda when it comes to Iraq, and it appears his desperation for our defeat is also the same as al Qaeda. But, Gen. Odierno and Gen. Petraeus have no reason to mislead themselves much less the public about the situation. It would be career suicide for generals to do that, and both of these guys are ambitious in a positive way. I think we will be in a position to withdraw more troops by the end of 2008 and that Democrats will take credit for that winning strategy and say we should have done it sooner. They will never admit they were wrong.