Another look at GOP big three in Iowa

Politico's Jonathon Martin sums up the race:

...

Huckabee: The major question now looming over his surge — is it for real? — will be emphatically answered by how he finishes in the caucuses. If Huck can withstand the pounding he's taking (and will continue to take) from Romney and Romney allies as well as the heightened scrutiny he's getting from the MSM, he'll be a serious contender into New Hampshire and beyond. If he can't succeed in a low-turnout caucus dominated by his kind of people (His kind of people, if you will), he's Howard Dean.

He may have hit a poll plateau, but his crowds here this week have been very good and there remains a loud buzz about his candidacy in the grass roots....

Romney: A loss in Iowa would be devastating to his campaign. He can embrace the underdog role all he wants, but given the time he's spent, resources he's invested and organization he's constructed, he's the closest thing to the establishment candidate here. And when the establishment candidate doesn't win a GOP primary/caucus, it's a big, big story.

Mitt's folks are increasingly optimistic about Iowa. They see Huck falling back down to earth in polling and are counting on the mainstream conservative vote to win the day....

...

Thompson: Because of his cash crunch, the bus tour is the only card in the deck he has to play. If it, and the earned media it draws, can convince skeptical Iowans that he wants it, a second-place finish could be doable.

He'll be bringing in supporters from out of state after Christmas and then even more after the first of the year. These "Thompson Troops" will aid a solid yet still-catching-up Fred organization on the ground here. Thompson's backers are more confident and hopeful now than they've been in some time and think that the Fred Iowans are seeing now is the one they've been waiting on.

Where his support comes from is key. Is he, with the help of Steve King, taking from the hard-core conservatives in the state that have coalesced around Huck? Or would he pull from the Republican regulars who may have been leaning Mitt but are more culturally simpatico with a plain-talkin' Tennessean?

...

He says Fred needs to connect with the small town papers to get the "earned media" he needs to overcome his cash shortage. So far this campaign, his YouTube media has been the best of any of the candidates. I am not sure where that gets him, but it is definitely his strong suit. I think his "trophy wife" is a bigger asset than many thought she would be. She seems to have an ability to connect with voters that Fred does not alway have.