Al Qaeda infiltration into Afghanistan down 40 %

LA Times:

Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said today that Al Qaeda insurgents who were launching attacks in Afghanistan have now shifted their emphasis to Pakistan, increasing the threat in that nation.

Gates said the number of Al Qaeda insurgents and other fighters coming into Afghanistan from Pakistan was down about 40% in Regional Command East, the volatile section of the country controlled by U.S. forces.

Al Qaeda, Gates said, maintains its base in the loosely governed tribal areas on Pakistan's border with Afghanistan. But the Al Qaeda fighters, he said, were not focused on attacking Afghanistan from Pakistan.

"There is no question that some of the areas in the frontier area have become areas where Al Qaeda has re-established itself. But so far, we haven't seen any significant consequence of that in Afghanistan itself."

Gates and Marine Gen. James E. Cartwright, the vice-chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said they were trying to help the Pakistan Army improve its counterinsurgency efforts.

"Al Qaeda right now seems to have turned its face toward Pakistan and attacks on the Pakistani government and Pakistani people," Gates said.

U.S. conventional forces do not operate in Pakistan. But America provides millions of dollars in military aid to the country, and the Pentagon is looking at ways to further improve Pakistani forces through additional training and equipment.

Gates said a small number of additional troops are needed in Afghanistan, but ruled out a broad surge of American forces. Commanders in Afghanistan are asking for smaller numbers of combat troops and support personnel who could train Afghan forces, but do not see the need for an Iraq-style troop buildup.

"You're talking about probably somewhere in the neighborhood of 7,500 troops. So it's not like moving 100,000 troops from one place to the other or something like that," Gates said. "But there is clearly, in the view even of the commander in the field, no requirement for a substantial plus-up of forces in Afghanistan to accomplish his mission."

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"There is no doubt ... that there has been an increase in violence over the past year," Gates said. "But in part it has been due to much more aggressive actions on the part of the NATO alliance and the U.S. forces that are there. The spring offensive we expected from the Taliban became NATO's spring offensive."

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That is one of the problems with the "violence" metric. If we are on the offensive, violence should increase, because we are seeking out contact with the enemy in order to destroy him. Gates indicates that the US will supply virtually all the increased forces in Afghanistan. He said it is political impossible for NATO to supply additional forces, which does not say much for NATO.

His statement on the reduction of al Qaeda activity in Afghanistan is pretty surprising, since they have been trying to fill in the losses the Taliban have endured, particularly among their leadership. It appears that with the losses al Qaeda has had in Iraq and now Afghanistan, they are going to try to defend their last remaining sanctuary in Pakistan. The Paks would be wise to encourage US assistance in their counterinsurgency program.

Some have suggested an Anbar awakening type program for Pakistan, but I view that possibility as remote. It may take more attacks like the one today on the mosque which killed around 50, before al Qaeda's allies abandon them.