After defeat in Iraq Al Qaeda consolidates its forces in Afghanistan

Reuters:

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates landed in Afghanistan on Monday to gauge military commanders' needs as they face a strengthened Taliban and signs that al Qaeda is regrouping in the country.

More than six years after a U.S.-led invasion drove the Taliban from power, Gates said he was concerned about the rising violence but he did not think Afghanistan was moving backward.

"I'm not worried about a back slide as much as I am how we continue the momentum going forward," the Pentagon chief told reporters. "I think that one of the clear concerns that we all have is that the last two or three years there has been a continuing increase in the overall level of violence."

The Pentagon also is worried about signs that al Qaeda is resurfacing in Afghanistan after defeats in parts of Iraq.

"We're seeing real early indicators that there may be some stepped-up activity by al Qaeda," said a senior U.S. defense official traveling with Gates. "Certainly that's something that we're concerned with."

American military officers in Iraq have speculated that al Qaeda would try to return to Afghanistan after losing ground in Iraq, where violence has declined following a security crackdown that added thousands of U.S. troops to the streets.

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This started some time ago as it became more difficult for al Qaeda to infiltrate into Iraq with the loss of its rat lines in Anbar and then the further loss of its northern route when a US raid found a goldmine of data on al Qaeda operations in Iraq.

Al Qaeda has attempted to distract US and western forces with operation in other countries including this summers operation in Lebanon taking over a Palestinian camp. Al Qeada lost that battle too when the relatively weak but spunky Lebanese army eventually took them out. Its planned attacks in Europe and the US have also been thwarted thanks in large part to NSA intercepts of their communications.

Al Qaeda has had some success with its allies in Pakistan but that is already being roll backed by the Pakistan army. Another reason why they have been sending forces into Afghanistan is the serious losses incurred by the Taliban in the last two years. Losses at the leadership level have been particularly acute as demonstrated by the increasingly inept operations of Taliban forces.